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The term '''Arab Spring'''  refers to the sequence of protest movements that started  [[/Addendum#Tunisia|in Tunisia]] in December 2010. The  protests there, and subsequently  in other Arab countries, were  intended to put an end to  government oppression, corruption and incompetence. They have led to the overthrow of existing regimes and to the conduct of parliamentary elections [[/Addendum#Tunisia| in Tunisia]], [[/Addendum#Egypt|in Egypt]] and [[/Addendum#Libya| in Libya]]. The protest movement [[/Addendum#Syria|in Syria]] has developed into a civil war, and protest movements elsewhere in the Arab world have achieved little more than promises of minor reforms. Although  Islamist organisations played little or no part in  the popular protests, they tended to do well in the elections that followed - although to a varying extent. In Tunisia the elections resulted in the creation of a stable coalition government involving  secularists and moderate Islamists. In Egypt the electoral advantage went to the moderately Islamist Muslim Brotherhood, but there have been massive popular challenges to the legitimacy of the resulting administration. In Libya the elections resulted in the formation of a broadly liberal administration with no Muslim Brotherhood representation. In the two years following the first uprisings,  only minor progress has been made toward the establishment of effective representative government. Even in Tunisia, where the greatest advance has been achieved, the ability of the elected government to uphold human rights and political freedom has been hampered by the need to put an end to corruption and incompetence, especially in its  security services. In  Egypt  there is widespread  distrust of those in power. The Libyan government has yet to establish its supremacy over the various bands of armed militia that dominate several localities. Reform of their political, administrative, judicial and security institutions has a long way further  to go before any of the Arab Spring countries can become fully  democratic.
- the '''summary''' below; a [[/Timelines|'''chronology''']] of main events;  notes on individual [[/Addendum#Arab national movements|national movements]]; notes on the [[/Addendum#The international response|'''international response''']]; and, notes on the major [[Catalogs#Persona|'''persona''']] involved.
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| This article includes data on subpages:  
* [[/Timelines]]
* [[/Addendum]]
* [[/Catalogs]]
The info was last updated on 17 January 2013.  
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==Background: the Arab condition==
Although there have been other uses, the term '''Arab Spring''' is now taken to refer to the sequence of protest movements that started with the successful uprising in Tunisia that began in December 2010. The subsequent protest movements in other Arab countries were mainly motivated by a wish to put an end to what was perceived as government oppression, corruption and incompetence. Many sought to do so by introducing a measure of democratic accountability, but the various national movements had little else in common, apart from  confidence inspired by the Tunisian success. The protests have so far resulted in uncertain regime change in Tunisia and Egypt, and  promises of limited democratic change in Algeria, Jordan, Morocco and Saudi Arabia. They have met a violent response in Libya, Syria and Bahrain, and the outcome in Libya and Syria is particularly uncertain.
===Politics===
Before the uprisings, the political structures of nearly all of the countries involved had  been categorised as authoritarian (with Syria, Libya and Saudi Arabia ranking among the 15 least democratic countries<ref>[http://graphics.eiu.com/PDF/Democracy_Index_2010_web.pdf ''The Democracy Index 2010'', Economist Intelligence Unit]</ref>), and the governments of five of them have been categorised as exceptionally corrupt (Morocco, Egypt, Algeria, Libya and Yemen appeared among the upper half  in the ranking of Transparency International's Corruption Perception Index)
<ref name="CPI">''Corruption Perception :Index''[http://www.transparency.org/policy_research./surveys_indices/cpi/2010/in_detail]</ref>.  Algeria, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Palestine, and Yemen allowed political parties to compete in elections.  Tunisia excluded religiously-affiliated parties. Islamist parties were banned in Egypt, but the nominally illegal Muslim Brotherhood had  fielded candidates  as independents. Syria allowed  only Ba'ath Party candidates Yemen allowed political parties but they were banned in Bahrain and Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Independent candidates were permitted in  in Oman and the UAE. Saudi Arabia did  not hold legislative elections
 
===Economics===
According to the staff of the [[International Monetary Fund]] many of the Arab  economies were characterised by "stifling economic regulations, state involvement in production and employment, a private sector based on privilege rather than competitiveness, generalized price subsidies instead of targeted social protection, and an educational system that no longer delivers on the expectations of students or their potential employers". Unemployment rates were generally among the highest in the world and youth unemployment rates range from 21 percent in Lebanon to 30 percent in Tunisia<ref name=imf>[http://www.imf.org/external/np/g8/pdf/052711.pdf ''Economic Transformation in MENA: Delivering on the Promise of Shared Prosperity'', - a report prepared for the G8 Summit of 26 May 2011 by Staff of the International Monetary Fund]</ref>. At least 19% of the population lived below the [[poverty line]] at the end of the 1990s according to an estimate based upon data from Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Tunisia and Yemen,.<ref>[http://www.arab-api.org/cv/aali-cv/aali/wps0402.pdf Ali Abdel Gadir Ali: ''Poverty in the Arab Region: A Selective Review'', (Background paper prepared for the IFPRI / API Collaborative Research Project on: ''Public Policy and Poverty Reduction in the Arab Region''.) page 26]</ref>.<br>
Oil production had accounted for more than 20 percent of 2004 GDP in Libya (63), Oman and Saudi Arabia (42), Algeria (38), Yemen (32), Bahrain (28) and Syria (21). In Egypt the percentage was 12 and in Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco and Tunisia it was less than 4.
<ref>[http://www.ofid.org/publications/PDF/ofid_pam34.pdf Majid Al-Moneef: ''The Contribution of the Oil Sector to Arab Economic Development'', IMF 2006]</ref>.  The oil-producing countries of Oman, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Libya had been among the world's more prosperous countries, but the prosperity of each of the others had been below, or well below the world average in terms of [[GDP]] per head, with Syria ranking 153rd out of a total of 228


==Background: the Arab condition==
==Arab protest movements==
The countries involved in the Arab Spring include: two mixed oil economies (Algeria and Libya); three oil economies (Bahrain, Oman and Saudi Arabia); six diversified economies (Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Syria and Tunisia); and  one primary export economy (Yemen). The oil-producing countries of Oman, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Libya are among the world's more prosperous countries. The prosperity of  each the others is below, or well below the world average in terms of GDP per head, with Syria ranking 153rd out of a total of 228. According to an estimate based upon data from Egypt, Jordan, Morocco and Tunisia and Yemen, at least 19% of the Arab population lived below the [[poverty line]] at the end of the 1990s<ref>[http://www.arab-api.org/cv/aali-cv/aali/wps0402.pdf Ali Abdel Gadir Ali: ''Poverty in the Arab Region: A Selective Review'', (Background paper prepared for the IFPRI / API Collaborative Research Project on: ''Public Policy and Poverty Reduction in the Arab Region''.)  page 26]</ref>. Their political structure has been categorised as "authoritarian" (with the exception of Lebanon) by the Economist Intelligence Unit  (with Syria, Libya and Saudi Arabia ranking among the 15 least democratic countries<ref>[http://graphics.eiu.com/PDF/Democracy_Index_2010_web.pdf ''The Democracy Index 2010'', Economist Intelligence Unit]</ref>). Five of them have suffered unusually high levels of corruption (Morocco, Egypt, Algeria, Libya and Yemen appear among the upper half  in the ranking of  Transparency International's Corruption Perception Index)
(country links are to country-by-country accounts on the [[/Addendum|addendum subpage]])
<ref name="CPI">''Corruption Perception :Index''[http://www.transparency.org/policy_research./surveys_indices/cpi/2010/in_detail]</ref>


==The development of the national movements==
Following the successful uprising in [[/Addendum|Tunisia]], there were mass protests of differing intensity in eleven other Arab countries. There were also wide differences  in the responses  to popular demands for change by the governments of those countries.  The governments of [[/Addendum|Bahrain]], [[/Addendum|Libya]], [[/Addendum|Syria]] and [[/Addendum|Yemen]] responded with armed attacks on the demonstrators. The governments of [[/Addendum|Algeria]], [[/Addendum|Jordan]], [[/Addendum|Morocco]], [[/Addendum|Oman]] and [[/Addendum|Saudi Arabia]] offered changes of governance that have so far had little effect. The governments of [[/Addendum|Egypt]] and [[/Addendum|Tunisia]] yielded promptly to demands for regime change, and regime change was forced upon Libya by the military defeat of its incumbent regime. Democratic elections have been held in Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia, but it was only in Egypt, Libya and Tunisia that the elected assemblies were empowered to create new constitutions.
The violent mass protest movements in Tunisia and Egypt succeeded in ousting existing regimes with the intention of achieving democracy, but the true nature of their replacement  regimes has yet to be  established.  The governments of Morocco, Algeria, Jordan and Oman responded to more limited protests with promises of political and constitutional reform.  Saudi Arabia's administration  sought to avoid confrontation  by announcing a major programme of infrastructure investment. Elsewhere, in Bahrain and Yemen - and particularly in Syria - the protest movements  met with military opposition, and in Libya there is little doubt that opposition to Gadaffi's  government would have been violently crushed had NATO not intervened.


==Civil war in Libya==
==Political change==
In mid-February, government forces opened fire on demonstrators in the Libyan second city of Benghazi. A bitter conflict ensued in which the rebels took control of the city. The government responded with an aerial bombardment that caused thousands of casualties. There was international outrage at the brutality of its actions and, on 18th March, the United Nations Security Council responded to the Arab League's request for the imposition of a no-fly zone with a resolution that authorised member states to ''to take all necessary measures to protect civilians under threat of attack''. In the course of the following week, air attacks by US, British and French aircraft destroyed the Libyan air force. In the following months there developed a civil war between government forces based in Tripoli in the west of Libya and rebel forces based in Benghazi in the east. During four months of fighting, there was an ebb and flow of advantage but no resolution, and by the middle of the year the conflict had become a war of attrition.
There was a modest move  toward  democracy during the first year of the Arab Spring (according to the Economist Intelligence Unit[http://pages.eiu.com/rs/eiu2/images/EIU_Democracy_Index_Dec2011.pdf] and Freedom House[http://www.freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world-aggregate-and-subcategory-scores]), with a major  [[/Addendum#Tunisia|improvement in Tunisia]], modest [[/Addendum#Libya|improvements in Libya]] [[/Addendum#Egypt|and Egypt]],  setbacks in Syria and Bahrain, and little change elsewhere. Constitutional changes that are to be introduced in Tunisia, Libya and  Egypt may result in further improvements. The establishment of democratic constitutions will depend upon the negotiation of compromises between the wishes of Islamists and [[Secularism|secularists]] such as will gain the approval of voters in their respective countries. A central issue is likely to be the rôle of [[sharia]] in the countries' legal systems. Possibilities range from its use only for the purpose of voluntary mediation, to its adoption as an obligatory code of behaviour such as that imposed by the [[Taliban]]
In July 2011, the USA formally recognised Libya’s the National Transitional Council
<ref>[http://www.cfr.org/religion/islam-governing-under-sharia/p8034 Toni Johnson and Lauren Vriens: ''Islam: Governing Under Sharia'', Council of Foreign Relations,  October 24, 2011]</ref><ref>[http://www.bbc.co.uk/religion/religions/islam/beliefs/sharia_1.shtml ''Sharia'', BBC Religions, 3 September 2009]</ref>.
<ref>[http://www.ntclibya.org/english/about/ ''The Libyan Interim National Council''   (Official Website)]</ref>, Libya's main opposition group, as the country’s legitimate government, but doubts about its integrity were subsequently raised by the killing by a local militia of its  chief of staff, General Abdel Fattah Younis<ref>[http://english.aljazeera.net/programmes/insidestory/2011/08/201181595355669833.html ''Who is in control of the Libyan opposition?'', Al Jazeera, 15 August 2011]</ref>.


==International reactions==
==Reconstruction==
The British Ambassador to the United Nations remarked in June 2011 that the international community had, until recently, devoted too much attention to the Israel/Palestine issue,  and not nearly enough to the issues raised by the lack of political and economic reform in the Arab countries
Reconstruction is considered to be a matter of some urgency because of the danger of further uprisings if conditions do not improve. According to a May 2011 report by the staff of the [[International Monetary Fund]],<ref name=imf/> a substantial increase in economic growth rates will be needed, to achieve which the oil-importing countries will need external finance of at least $160 billion. The report recommended international support in the form of market accesscredit guarantees, debt relief, and concessional lending. Provision for such support by means of the [[/Addendum#The Deauville Partnership|Deauville Partnership]] has since been agreed by the [[Group of Eight]] major industrialised countries; and an ''Arab Financing Facility for Infrastructure'' (AFFI)<ref>[http://www.g8.utoronto.ca/finance/fm110910-deauville-mena-en.html ''Joint Declaration of the International Financial Institutions'', G8 Information Centre, September 10, 2011]</ref> has been created to supply the necessary external finance.
<ref>[http://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/270611lyall_grant.pdf. Mark Lyall-Grant: ''Is there an Arab Summer? The UN’s Response to the Arab Spring'', Chatam House, 27 June 2011]]</ref>. He  noted, however that the UN Secretary-General had recently made a series of  bold statements on the situations in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Syria, Yemen and Bahrain despite criticisms by some major powers. More significantly, the  resolutions passed by the Security Council had been the most wide-ranging that it had passed  for more than 20 years. It had referred Libya to the International Criminal Court, adopted widespread sanctions in its resolution 1970; and  authorised military action to protect civilians in its resolution 1973.


In June 2011 the European Council declared its cmmitment to "the full implementation" of Security Council Resolutions 1970 and 1973<ref>[http://www.europa-eu-un.org/articles/es/article_11150_es.htm ''EU Council conclusions on Libya'', Europa, 20 June 2011]</ref>, although several EU goverments had expressed their opposition to military intervention.
The IMF expects  the Middle East and North Africa region to grow by 4.2 per cent in 2012 and 3.7 per cent in 2013<ref>[http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2012/01/pdf/text.pdf ''World Economic Outlook'', IMF 2012]</ref>.


There is no evidence of non-Arab influences upon the Arab Spring uprisings, and every indication that they came as a sudden surprise to all who were not directly involved.
==Non-Arab repercussions==
===Mali===


==Projected outcomes==
==The international response==
A May 2011 assessment by the Economist Intelligence Unit put the most probable outcome as the creation of functioning democracies in Tunisia and Egypt, tgether with some relaxations of authoritarianism in the other Arab countries. Much lower probabilities were assigned to the equally likely outcomes of comprehensive maintenance of authoritarianism, or a widespread trend toward significant democratic accountability<ref>[http://www.slideshare.net/economistintelligenceunit/eiu-report-spring-tidewill-the-arab-risings-yield-democracy-dictatorship-or-disorder ''Will the Arab risings yield democracy dictatorship or disorder?" EIU May 2011 White Paper]</ref>. Neither the persistence of the Syrian protest  nor the ferocity of its army's response were fully evident at that time. The BBC's security correspndent, Frank Gardner, has since reported that most analysts doubt that President Assad can survive in the long term, although his prospects may be improved by misgivings about his possible successors<ref>[http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-14080126 Frank Gardner: ''Arab Spring: Where it is now and where it may be going'', BBC News 10 July 2011]</ref>.
The killing of civilians by Arab Spring governments drew strong protests [[/Addendum#The United Nations|by the United Nations]] and adverse reports by its agencies. The Security Council's authorisation of military intervention had a decisive influence on the civil war in Libya, but the United Nations had little influence on events elsewhere in the Arab world. Military intervention in Libya was undertaken [[/Addendum#NATO|by NATO]] with decisive participation by the United States, France and Britain. In what was termed a [[/Addendum#USA|"new chapter in American diplomacy]] the United States undertook to promote reform across the region, and to support transitions to democracy. There was a similar undertaking [[/Addendum#The European Union|by the European Union]], although there were internal policy differences concerning military intervention in Libya. Opposition to military intervention was expressed [[/Addendum#Russia|by Russia]] and [[/Addendum#China|by China]] but both countries have given formal recognition to Libya's [[National Transitional Council]]. An undertaking to provide financial and technical support to Arab Spring transition programmes has been given by the governments of the [[Group of Eight]] major industrialised countries in the form of the [[/Addendum#The Deauville Partnership|Deauville Partnership]].


==References==
==References==
{{reflist|2}}
{{reflist|2}}[[Category:Suggestion Bot Tag]]

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The term Arab Spring refers to the sequence of protest movements that started in Tunisia in December 2010. The protests there, and subsequently in other Arab countries, were intended to put an end to government oppression, corruption and incompetence. They have led to the overthrow of existing regimes and to the conduct of parliamentary elections in Tunisia, in Egypt and in Libya. The protest movement in Syria has developed into a civil war, and protest movements elsewhere in the Arab world have achieved little more than promises of minor reforms. Although Islamist organisations played little or no part in the popular protests, they tended to do well in the elections that followed - although to a varying extent. In Tunisia the elections resulted in the creation of a stable coalition government involving secularists and moderate Islamists. In Egypt the electoral advantage went to the moderately Islamist Muslim Brotherhood, but there have been massive popular challenges to the legitimacy of the resulting administration. In Libya the elections resulted in the formation of a broadly liberal administration with no Muslim Brotherhood representation. In the two years following the first uprisings, only minor progress has been made toward the establishment of effective representative government. Even in Tunisia, where the greatest advance has been achieved, the ability of the elected government to uphold human rights and political freedom has been hampered by the need to put an end to corruption and incompetence, especially in its security services. In Egypt there is widespread distrust of those in power. The Libyan government has yet to establish its supremacy over the various bands of armed militia that dominate several localities. Reform of their political, administrative, judicial and security institutions has a long way further to go before any of the Arab Spring countries can become fully democratic.

This article includes data on subpages:

The info was last updated on 17 January 2013.

Background: the Arab condition

Politics

Before the uprisings, the political structures of nearly all of the countries involved had been categorised as authoritarian (with Syria, Libya and Saudi Arabia ranking among the 15 least democratic countries[1]), and the governments of five of them have been categorised as exceptionally corrupt (Morocco, Egypt, Algeria, Libya and Yemen appeared among the upper half in the ranking of Transparency International's Corruption Perception Index) [2]. Algeria, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Palestine, and Yemen allowed political parties to compete in elections. Tunisia excluded religiously-affiliated parties. Islamist parties were banned in Egypt, but the nominally illegal Muslim Brotherhood had fielded candidates as independents. Syria allowed only Ba'ath Party candidates Yemen allowed political parties but they were banned in Bahrain and Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Independent candidates were permitted in in Oman and the UAE. Saudi Arabia did not hold legislative elections

Economics

According to the staff of the International Monetary Fund many of the Arab economies were characterised by "stifling economic regulations, state involvement in production and employment, a private sector based on privilege rather than competitiveness, generalized price subsidies instead of targeted social protection, and an educational system that no longer delivers on the expectations of students or their potential employers". Unemployment rates were generally among the highest in the world and youth unemployment rates range from 21 percent in Lebanon to 30 percent in Tunisia[3]. At least 19% of the population lived below the poverty line at the end of the 1990s according to an estimate based upon data from Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Tunisia and Yemen,.[4].
Oil production had accounted for more than 20 percent of 2004 GDP in Libya (63), Oman and Saudi Arabia (42), Algeria (38), Yemen (32), Bahrain (28) and Syria (21). In Egypt the percentage was 12 and in Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco and Tunisia it was less than 4. [5]. The oil-producing countries of Oman, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Libya had been among the world's more prosperous countries, but the prosperity of each of the others had been below, or well below the world average in terms of GDP per head, with Syria ranking 153rd out of a total of 228

Arab protest movements

(country links are to country-by-country accounts on the addendum subpage)

Following the successful uprising in Tunisia, there were mass protests of differing intensity in eleven other Arab countries. There were also wide differences in the responses to popular demands for change by the governments of those countries. The governments of Bahrain, Libya, Syria and Yemen responded with armed attacks on the demonstrators. The governments of Algeria, Jordan, Morocco, Oman and Saudi Arabia offered changes of governance that have so far had little effect. The governments of Egypt and Tunisia yielded promptly to demands for regime change, and regime change was forced upon Libya by the military defeat of its incumbent regime. Democratic elections have been held in Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia, but it was only in Egypt, Libya and Tunisia that the elected assemblies were empowered to create new constitutions.

Political change

There was a modest move toward democracy during the first year of the Arab Spring (according to the Economist Intelligence Unit[2] and Freedom House[3]), with a major improvement in Tunisia, modest improvements in Libya and Egypt, setbacks in Syria and Bahrain, and little change elsewhere. Constitutional changes that are to be introduced in Tunisia, Libya and Egypt may result in further improvements. The establishment of democratic constitutions will depend upon the negotiation of compromises between the wishes of Islamists and secularists such as will gain the approval of voters in their respective countries. A central issue is likely to be the rôle of sharia in the countries' legal systems. Possibilities range from its use only for the purpose of voluntary mediation, to its adoption as an obligatory code of behaviour such as that imposed by the Taliban [6][7].

Reconstruction

Reconstruction is considered to be a matter of some urgency because of the danger of further uprisings if conditions do not improve. According to a May 2011 report by the staff of the International Monetary Fund,[3] a substantial increase in economic growth rates will be needed, to achieve which the oil-importing countries will need external finance of at least $160 billion. The report recommended international support in the form of market access, credit guarantees, debt relief, and concessional lending. Provision for such support by means of the Deauville Partnership has since been agreed by the Group of Eight major industrialised countries; and an Arab Financing Facility for Infrastructure (AFFI)[8] has been created to supply the necessary external finance.

The IMF expects the Middle East and North Africa region to grow by 4.2 per cent in 2012 and 3.7 per cent in 2013[9].

Non-Arab repercussions

Mali

The international response

The killing of civilians by Arab Spring governments drew strong protests by the United Nations and adverse reports by its agencies. The Security Council's authorisation of military intervention had a decisive influence on the civil war in Libya, but the United Nations had little influence on events elsewhere in the Arab world. Military intervention in Libya was undertaken by NATO with decisive participation by the United States, France and Britain. In what was termed a "new chapter in American diplomacy the United States undertook to promote reform across the region, and to support transitions to democracy. There was a similar undertaking by the European Union, although there were internal policy differences concerning military intervention in Libya. Opposition to military intervention was expressed by Russia and by China but both countries have given formal recognition to Libya's National Transitional Council. An undertaking to provide financial and technical support to Arab Spring transition programmes has been given by the governments of the Group of Eight major industrialised countries in the form of the Deauville Partnership.

References