Transnational spillover from weak and failed states
This article may be deleted soon. | ||
---|---|---|
Other nations, no matter how stable, cannot ignore other nations that are weak state|weak or failed states whether or not they have insurgencies, because problems in the troubled states can produce transnational spillover. Transnational threats that can affect developed and stable nations do not necessarily stay within the borders of a weak or failed state. These effects can be produced not only by insurgency, but by economics or anarchy, such as piracy from Somalia. "National" can be misleading, when state boundaries do not match significant ethnic ones. While the Durand Line divided Afghanistan and Pakistan (or, at the time, India), it was drawn up for reasons convenient to the British Empire, not to the political geography of the Pashtun people on both sides. Instabiility can have direct (e.g., terrorism, epidemic disease) or indirect (e.g., drug trade, economic instability in resources) effects on them. While ideological or religious terrorism is most frequently mentioned, it is, by no means, the only multinational problem that foreign internal defense (FID) or peace operations#nation-building|nation-building considers, starting at the national level. [1] Problems include:
The results of instability often are not limited to individual countries, but spill over to a region of developing or otherwise unstable states. "Pretending that the conflicts in Afghanistan, Chechnya, Darfur in Sudan, Iraq, Palestine and Sri Lanka are the problems of others or are going to solve themselves is not a solution. It should be noted that some states, especially in the ASEAN group, can be quite strong, but still have difficulties with piracy, terrorism, and drug traffic. There are a number of SIGINT by Alliances, Nations and Industries#ASEAN and Related Groups|intelligence-sharing arrangements among countries in this area and the US FID assistance needs can involve economically strong countries in other regions. "Nigeria is among the top ten exporters of crude oil to the United States. ...when rebel leaders in the oil-rich Niger delta vowed to launch an “all-out war on the Nigerian state,” instability helped propel global oil prices to more than $50 per barrel.[2] Blood diamondsTransnational criminal networks may use weak nations as sanctuaries for high-value, low-volume commodities such as diamonds[3] Drug tradeDrugs of abuse also are high-value and low-volume. The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODOC) observes
When a country's legitimate government is weak compared to its drug trade infrastructure, part of the external assistance may be defeating that infrastructure, or, minimally, reducing its ability to corrupt or destroy government institutions.[5]. PiracyPiracy is very real in the international waters of weak and failed states, such as Somalia.[6] When pirates are active, providing humanitarian supplies by water is impractical unless the transport vessels are armed, or travel in convoy. Piracy also may feed into security violations at ports, and as a means by which terrorists transport personnel and materials.[7] An Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) study on the ownership and control of ships reports that anonymous ownership is more the rule than the exception.[8]. There are reports that 15 cargo ships are linked to al-Qaeda.[9] The reputed strongholds in Pakistan hardly will be bases for ships, and weak and failed states become the logical ports. DiseasePoor public health is a very real problem, especially from domestic conflict that displaces refugees across borders. HIV is the most obvious, especially in Africa, but it is not the only major concern.[10] Military health specialists, as well as field epidemiologists (e.g., World Health Organization, Doctors without Borders, Centers for Disease Control Epidemiological Intelligence Service, can have an enormous impact. Training and equipping health and education facilities are key issue in restoring stability. TerrorismOrganized transnational terrorists flourish in weak states. A globally-oriented group using terrorist methods can coexist with a local insurgency, or perhaps in the country that offers sanctuary to a border-crossing insurgency in a neighboring state. Developed country counterterrorism programs can benefit from FID in weak states, by strengthening those states, with due regard to human rights and the rule of law. FID can complement the global war on terrorism by reducing these contributing factors. The defensive measures of anti-terrorism (AT) and offensive counterterrorism efforts can be part of the FID program developed for a HN. In many cases, measures increasing the capacity of a state to fight terrorism also will strengthen its overall internal development program. These measures can include the following:
Ethnic cleansingInternational specialists in information operations can help reduce the intensity of ethnic struggle. They have a range of techniques, from presenting things advantageous to all sides, to shutting down inflammatory propaganda outlets. References
|