Fifth Party System

The Fifth Party System, also called the New Deal Party System, refers to the era of United States national politics that began with the New Deal in 1933. It followed the Fourth Party System, usually called the Progressive Era. Experts debate whether it ended in the mid-1960s or the mid-1990s, or continues to the present. The System was heavily Democratic through 1964 and mostly Republican at the presidential level since 1968, with the Senate switching back and forth after 1980. The Democrats usually controlled the House except that the Republicans won in 1946, 1952, and 1994 through 2004 elections. Both Houses went Democratic in 2006. Of the nineteen presidential elections since 1932, the Democrats won 7 of the first 9 (through 1964), with Democratic control of Congress as the norm; while the GOP won 7 of the 10 since 1968, with divided government as the norm.

With Republican promises of prosperity discredited by the Great Depression, the four consecutive elections, 1932-36-40-44 of Democrat Franklin D. Roosevelt gave the Democrats dominance, though in domestic issues the Conservative coalition generally controlled Congress from 1938 to 1964. The activist New Deal promoted American liberalism, anchored in a New Deal Coalition of specific liberal groups, especially ethno-religious minorities (Catholics, Jews, African Americans), white Southerners, well-organized labor unions, big city machines, intellectuals, and liberal farm groups. Opposition Republicans were split between a conservative wing, led by Senator Robert A. Taft, and a more successful moderate wing led by President Dwight D. Eisenhower.

The period climaxed with Lyndon B. Johnson's smashing electoral defeat of conservative Republican presidential candidate Barry Goldwater in 1964; in no other election since 1944 has the Democratic party received more than 50.1% of the popular vote for President. The Democratic coalition divided in 1948 and 1968, in the latter election allowing the Republican candidate Richard Nixon to take the White House. Democrats kept control of the House until the 1994 election. For the next twelve years the GOP was in control with small majorities, until the Democrats recaptured the chamber with 2006 election and the 110th Congress. The Democrats held the Senate until 1980; since then the two parties have traded control of the Senate back and forth with small majorities.

New Deal Coalition: voting %D 1948-1964

% Democratic vote in major groups, presidency 1948-1964
	1948	1952	1956	1960	1964
all voters	50	45	42	50	61
White	50	43	41	49	59
Black	50	79	61	68	94
College	22	34	31	39	52
High School	51	45	42	52	62
Grade School	64	52	50	55	66
Professional & Business	19	36	32	42	54
White Collar	47	40	37	48	57
Manual worker	66	55	50	60	71
Farmer	60	33	46	48	53
Union member	76		51	62	77
Not union	42		35	44	56
Protestant	43	37	37	38	55
Catholic	62	56	51	78	76
Republican		8	4	5	20
Independent		35	30	43	56
Democrat		77	85	84	87
East	48	45	40	53	68
Midwest	50	42	41	48	61
West	49	42	43	49	60
South	53	51	49	51	52

Source: Gallup Polls in Gallup (1972)

Sixth Party System?

The party system model dates to the late 20th century. The numbering of the systems was introduced in 1967. Much of the work published on the subject has been political scientists explaining the events of their own time as the imminent breakup of the Fifth Party System, and the installation of a new one; some papers argue that it broke up at some time long before publication. However, no decisive electoral event, shifting both Presidential and Congressional control, has occurred since 1932. This idea was particularly popular in the 1970s, specifying dates as early as 1960; it became popular again in the first decade of the twenty-first century.

Other current writing on the Fifth Party System expresses admiration of its longevity: the first four systems lasted about 30 to 40 years each, which would have implied that the early twenty-first century should see a Seventh Party System . It is also possible, as argued in (Jensen 1981) and elsewhere, that the party system has given way, not to a new party system, but to a period of disalignment in politics.

References

• John H. Aldrich (1999). "Political Parties in a Critical Era". American Politics Research 27 (1): 9–32. DOI:10.1177/1532673X99027001003. Research Blogging.

alone speculates on emergence of Seventh Party System

• Allswang, John M. New Deal and American Politics (1978), statistical analysis of votes
• Andersen, Kristi. The Creation of a Democratic Majority, 1928-1936 (1979), statistical analysis of polls
• Bibby, John F. "Party Organizations, 1946-1996," in Byron E. Shafer, ed. Partisan Approaches to Postwar American Politics, (1998)
• Cantril, Hadley and Mildred Strunk, eds. Public Opinion, 1935-1946 (1951). (A massive compilation of public opinion polls.)
• Fraser, Steve, and Gary Gerstle, eds. The Rise and Fall of the New Deal Order, 1930-1980 (1990), essays on broad topics.
• Gallup, George. The Gallup Poll: Public opinion, 1935-1971 (3 vol 1972)
• Geer, John G. "New Deal Issues and the American Electorate, 1952-1988," Political Behavior, 14#1 (Mar., 1992), pp. 45-65 online at JSTOR
• Gershtenson, Joseph. "Mobilization Strategies of the Democrats and Republicans, 1956-2000," Political Research Quarterly Vol. 56, No. 3 (Sep., 2003), pp. 293-308 in JSTOR
• Green, John C. and Paul S. Herrnson. "Party Development in the Twentieth Century: Laying the Foundations for Responsible Party Government?" (2000)
• Hamby, Alonzo. Liberalism and Its Challengers: From F.D.R. to Bush (1992).
• Jensen, Richard. "The Last Party System: Decay of Consensus, 1932-1980," in The Evolution of American Electoral Systems (Paul Kleppner et al. eds.) (1981) pp 219-225,
• Ladd Jr., Everett Carll with Charles D. Hadley. Transformations of the American Party System: Political Coalitions from the New Deal to the 1970s 2nd ed. (1978).
• Leuchtenburg, William E. In the Shadow of FDR: From Harry Truman to George W. Bush (2001)
• Levine, Jeffrey; Carmines, Edward G.; and Huckfeldt, Robert. "The Rise of Ideology in the Post-New Deal Party System, 1972-1992." American Politics Quarterly (1997) 25(1): 19-34. Issn: 0044-7803 Argues that the social basis of the New Deal party system has weakened. The result is ideology shapes partisan support.
• Manza, Jeff and Clem Brooks; Social Cleavages and Political Change: Voter Alignments and U.S. Party Coalitions, Oxford University Press, 1999
• Manza, Jeff; "Political Sociological Models of the U.S. New Deal" Annual Review of Sociology, 2000 pp 297+
• Milkis, Sidney M. and Jerome M. Mileur, eds. The New Deal and the Triumph of Liberalism (2002)
• Milkis, Sidney M. The President and the Parties: The Transformation of the American Party System Since the New Deal (1993)
• Arthur Paulson. Electoral Realignment and the Outlook for American Democracy (2006)
• Robinson, Edgar Eugene. They Voted for Roosevelt: The Presidential Vote, 1932-1944 (1947) tables of votes by county
• Shafer, Byron E. and Anthony J. Badger, eds. Contesting Democracy: Substance and Structure in American Political History, 1775-2000 (2001)
• Sternsher, Bernard. "The New Deal Party System: A Reappraisal," Journal of Interdisciplinary History v.15#1 (Summer, 1984), pp. 53-81 JSTOR
• Sternsher, Bernard. "The Emergence of the New Deal Party System: A Problem in Historical Analysis of Voter Behavior," Journal of Interdisciplinary History, v.6#1 (Summer, 1975), pp. 127-149 online at JSTOR
• Sundquist, James L. Dynamics of the Party System: Alignment and Realignment of Political Parties in the United States, (1983)

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