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==Optimum currency area theory==
==Optimum currency area theory==


Optimum currency area theory adopts the presumption that a currency area confers microeconomic benefits upon its members by eliminating [[exchange rate risk]]s and reducing transactions costs. Its analysis concerns the extent to which those benefits are offset by macroeconomic costs arising from the necessary sacrifice of national control over [[monetary policy]], such as the cost of the additional [[unemployment]] that may be expected to result from that sacrifice when there is an economic [[downturn (economic)|downturn]].
Optimum currency area theory adopts the presumption that a currency area confers a  benefit upon its members by eliminating [[exchange rate risk]]s and reducing transactions costs. Its analysis concerns the extent to which that benefit may be offset by the risk of an additional  cost when there is a [[recession]]. Such an additional cost arises when there is a difference between the [[monetary policy]] response to the recession  that is appropriate for a member country, and that which is appropriate for  the currency area as a whole. When that happens, some  member countries  may suffer unemployment and other economic costs that they could have avoided if they had retained control over their national monetary policies. It is liable to happen when the currency area experiences  an [[asymmetric shock]] which affects the economies of some member countries more than others.  


<ref>Robert Mundell: ''A theory of Optimum Currency Areas'', American Economic Review, 51 (4), 1961</ref>
The term "optimum currency area" (OCA) is believed to have been coined by the eminent economist Robert Mundell to denote  the concept of an area within which there would be  no such offsetting costs. Mundell's analysis demonstrated that a  sufficient condition would be either a frictionless migration of labour, or a frictionless adaptation of labour and product costs, in response to a recessionary change in demand<ref>Robert Mundell: ''A theory of Optimum Currency Areas'', American Economic Review, 51 (4), 1961</ref>. Robert McKinnon has proposed  openness as an alternative  criterion, arguing  that open economies tend not to experience price rigidities<ref>Ronald McKinnon: ''Optimum Currency Areas'', American Economic Review, September 1963</ref>, and Peter Kenen  has proposed economic convergence as another alternative, arguing  that asymmetric shocks would not occur in  the absence of economic  differences among the economies of member countries<ref>Peter Kenen: "The Theory of Optimum Currency Areas: An Eclectic View"  in R.Mundell and A. Swoboda eds, ''Monetary Problems of the International Economy'', The University of Chicago Press, 1969</ref>. Later studies have examined the effects upon the OCA criteria of changes to member states' economies that might take place as a result of membership, and some authors believe  that the criteria  could be satisfied as a result of  convergence  after joining even if they are not fully satisfied before<ref>[http://www.ecb.int/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp138.pdf F Paolo: ''"New" Views on the Optimum Currency Area Theory: What is EMU Telling Us?'', European Central Bank, 2002]</ref>.  On the other hand, it has been suggested that there may be increased national specialisation as a result of improved trading opportunities, promoting divergence rather than convergence<ref>Paul Krugman, ''Geography and Trade'', MIT Press, 1991</ref>.
<ref> Paul  de GrAuwe: ''The Political Economy of Monetary Union in Europe'', The World Economy, November 1993</ref>
 
<ref>[http://www.cepr.org/pubs/Bulletin/dps/dp842.htm ''European Monetary Union, Political conditions'', CEPR, 1993]</ref>
Academic contributions to the debate about the eurozone as a currency area have been summarised by Kenneth Rogoff<ref>[http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/a-centerless-euro-cannot-hold ''A centerless eurozone cannot hold'', Kenneth Rogoff, Project Syndicate, April 2012]</ref>.
 
==OCA theory and the Eurozone==
The eurozone does not meet Mundell's labour migration or cost flexibility requirements. Labour mobility is low<ref>[http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/publication13173_en.pdf Alexandre Janiak and Etienne Wasmer: ''Mobility in Europe'', European Commission, 2008]</ref> and there is limited wage and price flexibility<ref>[http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/publication9587_en.pdf  Alfonso Arpaia and Karl Pichelmann: ''Nominal and real wage flexibility in EMU'', European Commission, 2007]</ref><ref>[http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/publication15196_en.pdf  Emmanuel Dhyne, Jerzy Konieczny, Fabio Rumler and Patrick Sevestre: ''Price Rigidity in the Euro Area'', European Commission, 2009]</ref>. There have also been large differences in economic and financial structures<ref>[http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/publication900_en.pdf Massimo Suardi: ''EMU and asymmetries in monetary policy transmission'', European Commission, 2001]</ref>.  One study has suggested that the  initial  expectation that membership would promote convergence has not been realised<ref> Clas Wihlborg, Thomas Willett and Nan Zhang: ''The Crisis in the Eurozone'', World Economics, October-December 2010</ref>. Another has detected a trend toward price convergence<ref>[http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/835/1/MPRA_paper_835.pdf Nigel Allington, Paul Kattuman, and  Florian Waldmann: ''One Market, One Money, One Price?'', Munich Personal RePEc Archive, 2005]</ref> although not necessarily as a result of eurozone membership. The eminent economist, Kenneth Rogoff  has reviewed the evidence and concluded that Europe may never be an “optimum” currency area, and that, without further profound political and economic integration the euro may not survive even to the end of the decade<ref>[http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/a-centerless-euro-cannot-hold Kenneth Rogoff: ''A Centerless Euro Cannot Hold'', Project Syndicate'', April 26, 2012]</ref>.
 
==References==
{{reflist}}

Latest revision as of 05:27, 28 September 2012

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Tutorials relating to the topic of Eurozone.

Optimum currency area theory

Optimum currency area theory adopts the presumption that a currency area confers a benefit upon its members by eliminating exchange rate risks and reducing transactions costs. Its analysis concerns the extent to which that benefit may be offset by the risk of an additional cost when there is a recession. Such an additional cost arises when there is a difference between the monetary policy response to the recession that is appropriate for a member country, and that which is appropriate for the currency area as a whole. When that happens, some member countries may suffer unemployment and other economic costs that they could have avoided if they had retained control over their national monetary policies. It is liable to happen when the currency area experiences an asymmetric shock which affects the economies of some member countries more than others.

The term "optimum currency area" (OCA) is believed to have been coined by the eminent economist Robert Mundell to denote the concept of an area within which there would be no such offsetting costs. Mundell's analysis demonstrated that a sufficient condition would be either a frictionless migration of labour, or a frictionless adaptation of labour and product costs, in response to a recessionary change in demand[1]. Robert McKinnon has proposed openness as an alternative criterion, arguing that open economies tend not to experience price rigidities[2], and Peter Kenen has proposed economic convergence as another alternative, arguing that asymmetric shocks would not occur in the absence of economic differences among the economies of member countries[3]. Later studies have examined the effects upon the OCA criteria of changes to member states' economies that might take place as a result of membership, and some authors believe that the criteria could be satisfied as a result of convergence after joining even if they are not fully satisfied before[4]. On the other hand, it has been suggested that there may be increased national specialisation as a result of improved trading opportunities, promoting divergence rather than convergence[5].

Academic contributions to the debate about the eurozone as a currency area have been summarised by Kenneth Rogoff[6].

OCA theory and the Eurozone

The eurozone does not meet Mundell's labour migration or cost flexibility requirements. Labour mobility is low[7] and there is limited wage and price flexibility[8][9]. There have also been large differences in economic and financial structures[10]. One study has suggested that the initial expectation that membership would promote convergence has not been realised[11]. Another has detected a trend toward price convergence[12] although not necessarily as a result of eurozone membership. The eminent economist, Kenneth Rogoff has reviewed the evidence and concluded that Europe may never be an “optimum” currency area, and that, without further profound political and economic integration the euro may not survive even to the end of the decade[13].

References