Eurozone crisis/Addendum
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The financial status of the PIIGS countries
Portugal Ireland Italy Greece Spain Private sector debt 2008 (per cent GDP) Public debt. 2010 (per cent GDP)[1] 83.1 99.4 118.4 130.2 63.5 Percentage of public debt that is foreign-owned 2007[2] 55 62 42 48 Average time to maturity of public debt, years[3] 6.6 6.9 7.2 7.8 6.4 Primary budget deficit, 2010 (per cent GDP)[1] 4.1 29.3 0.8 2.2 7.3 CDS spread, November 2010 (basis points)[4] 510 595 1000 312 S&P credit rating, July 2010 [5] A- AA A+ BB+ AA Current account deficit, 2010 (per cent of GDP)[6] 10.0 2.7 2.9 10.8 4.8
- ↑ 1.0 1.1 WEO projections, IMF Fiscal Monitor, November 2010
- ↑ ECB
- ↑ Global Debt and Deleveraging from McKinsey and the Economist, June 26 2010
- ↑ Automated Trader November 2010
- ↑ Guardian Datablog, 19 July 2010 (ratings go AAA, AA, A, BBB, BB, B)
- ↑ Regional Economic Outlook, Europe, IMF October 2010
Sustainability adjustments
The primary budget balance (as a percentage of gdp) required to avoid an increase in the public debt is given by f = d(g - r) where r is the annual interest rate on the debt; and g is the annual growth rate of nominal GDP (See the debt trap identity)
Portugal Ireland Italy Greece Spain (g - r) 2003-2007 -0.2 2.2 -0.7 3.9 1.7 (g - r) 2009-2011 -3.3 -5.3 -3.6 -6.0 -2.3 Primary budget adjustment (% of GDP) 3.1 7.5 2.9 9.9 4.0
Source: Cinzia Alcidi and Daniel GrosIs: Is Greece different? Adjustment difficulties in southern Europe, Vox, 22 April 2010[1]
GDP growth
(per cent change on previous quarter)
2009 2010 2011 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Portugal -0,2 1.1 0.2 0.4 Italy -0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 Ireland -2.5 2.2 -1.2 Greece -1.1 -0.6 -1.7 -1.1 Spain -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.0 Eurozone 0.2 0.4 1.0 0.4
(Source: Eurostat[2])
The bail-out clauses
The protocol of the Maastricht Treaty on economic and social cohesion[1] contains the following clauses
Article 104b
- 1. The Community shall not be liable for or assume the commitments of central governments, regional, local or other public authorities, other bodies governed by public law, or public undertakings of any Member State, without prejudice to mutual financial guarantees for the joint execution of a specific project. A Member State shall not be liable for or assume the commitments of central governments, regional, local or other public authorities, other bodies governed by public law or public undertakings of another Member State, without prejudice to mutual financial guarantees for the joint execution of a specific project.
Article 103a
- 1. Without prejudice to any other procedures provided for in this Treaty, the Council may, acting unanimously on a proposal from the Commission, decide upon the measures appropriate to the economic situation, in particular if severe difficulties arise in the supply of certain products.
- 2. Where a Member State is in difficulties or is seriously threatened with severe difficulties caused by exceptional occurrences beyond its control, the Council may, acting unanimously on a proposal from the Commission, grant, under certain conditions, Community financial assistance to the Member State concerned. Where the severe difficulties are caused by natural disasters, the Council shall act by qualified majority. The President of the Council shall inform the European Parliament of the decision taken.