Recession of 2009/Addendum

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This addendum is a continuation of the article Recession of 2009.

Recent economic developments

2008 4th quarter

World

G20 leaders agree on need for fiscal stimulus


The oil price falls. (November US light $60/barrel, down fron July $147 peak)[1].


The United States

US industrial production falls. Chicago Federal Reserve Bank's National Activity Index (CFNAI) falls from -1.61 for August to -2.57 for September, mainly on steep fall in industrial production [2].

US consumer confidence falls to its lowest point since first measured in 1967.

US output falls - by 0.3% between second and third quarters of 2008 [3]

US interest rate reduced - a 0.5 percentage point cut in the Federal Reserve Bank's benchmark rate to 1.0%.

US unemployment rate rises to 6.5% - the highest for 14 years.

US consumer prices fall by 1% in October [4]

US congress fails to agree on fiscal stimulus

Europe

The United Kingdom

UK output falls - by 0.5% between second and third quarters of 2008 [5].

Bank of England slashes its discount rate by an unprecedented 1.5 per cent to 3 per cent.

UK Budget stimulus - discretionary public expenditure of 1.1% of GDP [6]

Investment banks cut lending - by over two-thirds between September and October [7]

Other Europeancountries

Crises in Iceland, Hungary and Ukraine - to be tackled by loans from the International Monetary Fund

Asia

Recession in Japan - as output falls by 0.9% and 0.1% in 2nd and 3rd quarters of 2008.

Forecasts and outturns

Annual percentage growth in Gross Domestic Product
(forecasts are shown in italics)
Date Source Country 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
02 October 2008 International Monetary Fund [8]. United States 2.0 1.6 0.1
United Kingdom 3.0 1.0 -0.1
France 2.2 0.8 0.2
Japan 2.1 0.7 0.5
China 12 10 9
World 5.0 3.9 3.0
08 October 2008 Conference Board [9] United States 2.0 1.7 0.0
06 November 2008 International Monetary Fund [10]. United States 2.0 1.4 -0.7
Europe 2.6 1.2 -0.5
Japan 2.1 0.5 -0.2
China 12 9.7 8.5
World 5.0 3.7 2.2
08 November 2008 Economist poll [11] United States 2.0 1.4 -0.1
United Kingdom 3.0 0.9 -1.0
France 2.2 0.9 0.0
Japan 2.1 0.5 -0.1
13 November 2008 OECD [12] United States 2.0 1.4 -0.9 1.6
Japan 2.1 0.5 -0.1 0.6
Europe 2.6 1.1 -0.5 1.2

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