2008 United States presidential election

The United States will have its 55th quadrennial presidential election on November 4, 2008. The leading Democratic contenders for the nomination are Senator Hillary Clinton, and Senator Barack Obama, trailed by former Senator John Edwards and several also-rans. Among the Republicans there is currently a four-way race between Senator John McCain, former Governor Mitt Romney, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani, and former Governor Mike Huckabee, trailed by former Senator Fred Thompson, and Representative Ron Paul. McCain is currently leading by 10 points over Huckabee. Each party will officially name its ticket at its national convention in late August for the Democrats and early September for the GOP; the great majority of delegates will be selected in February and March.

New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg has been making preparations for the possibility of becoming an independent candidate. As a multi-billionaire he has the capacity to finance his own campaign without outside contributions or federal matching funds.

This election will choose the 44th President of the United States and the 47th Vice President of the United States. Since President George W. Bush has served two terms already, he is ineligible to serve another term as president. Following the re-election of Bush in 2004, Vice President Dick Cheney denied any interest in running for president, quoting General William Tecumseh Sherman's famous statement "If nominated, I will not run. If elected, I will not serve."

Background

A narrow victory in the 2004 elections handed Republicans control of both houses as well as the presidency, but with Bush ineligible to run, Vice President Dick Cheney announced he would not be a candidate. The Bush administration has not put forward its own candidate and remains neutral in the GOP contest.

After a close and highly-disputed loss of the Gore/Lieberman ticket in 2000, and a loss of the popular vote by three million in 2004, the Democrats were pessimistic about 2008. However, bad news from Iraq and Hurricane Katrina, as well as ethics scandals, undermined the popularity of the Bush administration. The Democrats made a dramatic comeback in the 2006 elections, capturing both houses of Congress. They opposed Bush's war policy, but were unable to change it or to pass major domestic legislation, leading to frustration among Democrats and a growing hostility toward all Washington politicians.

Democrats in 2007

see U.S. Democratic Party

Polls in early 2008 show a competitive November election, between top Democratic candidates (in poll standings) Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama vs. John McCain, who is leading in the Republican polls. In the Democratic race, throughout 2007 Clinton had a wide lead over Obama and Edwards.

Republicans in 2007

see U.S. Republican Party

The Republican primary shows a contest in turmoil, which may indicate the splintering of the Reagan coalition of social conservatives, the religious right, national-defense hawks, and advocates of low taxes. McCain started with a large lead but collapsed in the spring, because of grass roots opposition to his liberal stance on immigration, and bad financial strategy that left the campaign broke. But McCain soldiered on, making a comeback in early January, 2008, and winning the New Hampshire primary by 37%-32% for Romney. Rudy Giuliani, the former Mayor of New York, used his heroic image from the 9-11 Attack, and promise of a strong counter-terrorism policy, to vault to the lead in mid-2007, despite moderate social policies that the large conservative wing disliked. In early December, however, his negatives were catching up and he fell from the 30% to the 20% level nationally, and ran a weak fourth in New Hampshire at 9%. His strategy involves a comeback in the Florida primary. Hollywood actor and former senator Fred Thompson entered the race late, but appealed to many conservatives looking for another Ronald Reagan. His ineffective campaign style led to a steady erosion of support; he polled 1% in New Hampshire. Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, by reversing previous moderate positions, suddenly became a hard-line conservative spokesman. His Mormon religion, however, caused distrust among the religious conservatives who bulk large in some primaries. Romney's strategy was to pour millions of dollars (much of it his personal money) into Iowa and New Hampshire, hoping that victories there on January 3 and 8, 2008, would generate massive favorable publicity. That publicity supposedly would propel him into a dominant position in the Super Tuesday primaries on Feb. 5, 2008, when 45% of the delegates will be chosen.

Every prediction and game plan was shattered in November, when Mike Huckabee, a little known former governor of Arkansas, shot to the top of the polls and won in Iowa. His base comprises evangelical Christians, who comprise 35% of national GOP voters. Evangelicals comprise 48%-68% of Republicans in the South and border states, 47% in Iowa, and only 11% in New Hampshire. They are 33% in Michigan, 29% in Florida, 27% in California and 14% in New York.

The candidates in primaries and caucuses

For daily updates on the polls see [5]

Iowa: Jan 3

Obama scored a surprise win in the Jan 3, Iowa caucuses, 9 points ahead of Edwards, who was slightly ahead of Clinton. He immediately gained so much momentum that many observers thiough the Clinton campaign was in danger of collapsing.

Republican Mike Huckabee, a former governor of Arkansas, (and former Baptist minister), made a strong appeal to the religious conservatives. His base of support is "born again" evangelical Christians, who comprise 35% of national GOP voters and 47% of the GOP voters in Iowa. Years as a TV announcer gave him a polished yet informal campaign persona that no other candidate could match. Outspent by Romney 10-1, Huckabee nevertheless scored a major upset in the Iowa caucuses, coming in first and beating Romney by 9 points.

Voter behavior

• GOP entrance polls
• Dem. entrance polls

Clinton did well among voters over 50, liberals, and both the lowest and highest income groups. Obama, who won decisively, held huge leads among voters under 35. He also did best among those who are "very liberal" and those earning lower middle income ($35,000-$50,000). Edwards did best among men, those earning $75,000-$100,000, and 30-49 year olds.

The GOP pre-caucus polls in Iowa showed Huckabee at 29% and Romney at 28%, trailed by McCain at 11%. Huckabee led among 30-64 year olds, among "very conservative" Republicans, those earning $50,000-$100,000, and Born Again Christians. Romney led among Independents, both the youngest and oldest voters, moderates, and the lowest and highest income groups. John McCain was in third place by virtue of doing well (though not leading) among voters over 55 (especially over 65), and moderates.

New Hampshire: Jan 8

After his win in Iowa, Obama led in all the polls by an average of 10 points in New Hampshire, but Clinton stunned the political world by beating Obama 39%-37%, with Edwards at 17%.

McCain won the GOP contest by 37%-32% over Romney, who had previously dominated the polls in the Granite State. Huckabee ran third at 11%; about 11% of the state's Republicans are evangelicals.

Voter behavior

• GOP exit polls
• Dem exit polls

Obama did best among men, younger voters, independents, and college graduates, while Clinton led by wide margins among women, poorer voters, union members, registered Democrats and older voters--that is, her voter profile resembled the old New Deal Coalition.

Michigan: Jan 15

The Michigan primary was won by Clinton on Jan. 15 with 56% of the vote, but her main opponents had withdrawn and supported an "uncommitted" ticket. The reason was the national party stripped Michigan of all its delegates for breaking the national rules on primary dates.

After unexpected defeats in Iowa and New Hampshire, Romney promised to fight on, but stopped his TV ads in South Carolina (which has a primary on Jan. 19) to concentrate on the Jan. 15 Michigan primary in the state where he was born and his father was governor. Romney regained momentum by a 10 point win in Michigan over McCain.

Voter behavior

• GOP exit poll
• DEM exit poll

Exit polls show McCain lost soundly among registered Republicans--41% for Romney, 27% for McCain. McCain also lost among voters who considered the economy as the top issue—Romney 42% McCain 29%. He fared no better among those who said illegal immigration Polls show the economy may be looming more important as consumer confidence tumbles to the lowest levels of the post-9/11 era. Data released Jan 16 by Rasmussen Reports shows that 73% of Americans believe the economy is getting worse.

McCain did win among those consider the War in Iraq the top issue—McCain 41% Romney 31%. However, among those who considered the broader War on Terror as most important McCain and Romney were tied at 31%.

Nevada caucus: Jan 19

With Edwards trailing far behind and Bill Richardson dropping out, the Democratic contest focused on Obama and Clinton, who next face each other in the Nevada caucus on Jan. 19 and the South Carolina primary on Jan. 26.

Enthusiasm

Democrats showed much greater enthusiasm for their candidates, turning out in far larger and more enthusiastic rallies, and numbering far more supporters in the Iowa and New Hampshire contests, even though the parties were about evenly balanced in both states in 2000 and 2004. As 2008 opened the Democratic candidates have so far raised $223 million, compared with $152 million for Republican candidates.

Issues

Iraq

For Democrats the central issue is the the depth of opposition to Bush's Iraq War; Republicans generally support Bush on Iraq. As of November 2007, polls on average show that over 60% of Americans believe that the war is not going well, and a central part of the 2008 campaigns have been each candidates' strategy to stabilize Iraq and set the stage for withdrawal for Iraq. Most Democratic candidates have stated that a withdrawal of troops is necessary to reduce the risk of further casualties of U.S. troops in Iraq, and will also help Iraqi forces become self-sufficient. Some Democratic candidates have stated that continuing U.S presence has abetted the rise of Al-Qaeda in Iraq with Senator Joe Biden stating "We must get our soldiers out of this civil war where they become justification for the Bush-fulfilling prophecy of Al-Qaeda in Iraq to flourish..."

On the contrary, almost every candidate for the GOP nomination has supported President Bush's call for an extended presence in Iraq, stating that the troops should be allowed to finish their assignment and that an early withdrawal could precipitate a breakdown of Iraq's parliamentary government, allowing it to fall to influence from Iran or Al-Qaeda. An exception to this has been Congressman Ron Paul of Texas, who was the Libertarian Party's presidential nominee in 1988, who has consistently advocated for a non-interventionist foreign policy and a withdrawal of troops from Iraq.

Immigration

A central issue for Republicans (but not Democrats) is the status of illegal immigrants, with a grass roots nativism hurting Giuliani. Debate goes on in the Republican party as to whether or not illegal immigrants should be granted a path to citizenship, although all candidates have stated their opposition towards businesses hiring them in America. Among the Democratic field, all candidates have stated a desire to allow a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants, though each candidates' plans differ. Some have stated their support for a crackdown on businesses hiring undocumented workers.

Mechanics

The rules are complicated and differ for each state and each party.The campaign will have three stages. In January, come the preliminaries, with attention focused on the Iowa caucus (Jan. 3) and the New Hampshire primary (Jan 8), along with contests in Michigan, South Carolina and Florida. Then comes Super Tuesday Feb 5, with 40% of the delegates chosen. After that a string of primaries will be held, which will become increasingly important if the races become deadlocked on Feb. 5. The nominees could possibly be undecided until the national conventions in August/September.

The Democratic party rules are that delegates are awarded to the candidate in proportion to their votes in the primary. In addition the Democrats have "superdelegates" who are party officials who automatically become delegates. The Republicans allow more complex rules. Several states (Florida, with a Jan. 29 primary, and New York and New Jersey with primaries on Feb. 5) have "winner take all" rules that magnify their importance.

Most states use primaries which are ordinary elections. Some are open only to party members; in other like New Hampshire, registered independents can vote in one or the other party primary.

The caucuses are a leftover from 19th century. In Iowa voters to go to a local school or meeting place; Republicans sign in with their vote and leave. Democrats must spend an hour or two in a "caucus" to register their preference. Supporters of candidates with under 15% at that caucus move to another candidate. The Democratic Iowa caucus is a mixture of discussion, debating, a little horse-trading, and some consensus-building between neighbors. Anything can happen, but the media will report on the distribution of support at the end of the evening. (The actual national delegates in Iowa will be chosen months later, and are few in number.)

Third parties choose their candidates at their own, smaller conventions that receive little coverage.

Candidates for the Democratic nomination

Top tier

• Hillary Clinton - Former First Lady (1993-2001) and Senator from New York since 2001
• John Edwards - Former Senator from South Carolina (1998-2004) and Democratic Vice Presidential nominee in 2004
• Barack Obama - Senator from Illinois since 2004

Second tier

• Mike Gravel - Former Senator from Alaska (1969-1981)
• Dennis Kucinich - Congressman from Ohio

Withdrawn candidates

• Joe Biden - Senator from Delaware since 1973, head of Senate Foreign Relations Committee
• Christopher Dodd - Senator from Connecticut since 1981
• Bill Richardson - Governor of New Mexico since 2003, Secretary of Energy from 1997-2001, Ambassador to the United Nations from 1997-1998

Candidates for the Republican nomination

Top Tier

• Rudy Giuliani - Mayor of New York City 1994-2001
• Mike Huckabee - Governor of Arkansas 1996-2007
• John McCain - Senator from Arizona 1987-present, sought GOP nomination in 2000 losing to Bush
• Mitt Romney - Governor of Massachusetts, 2002-2007

Second tier

• Duncan Hunter - Congressman from California, 1981-present
• Ron Paul - Congressman from Texas 1997-present, Libertarian Party presidential nominee in 1988
• Fred Thompson - Senator from Tennessee, 1994-2003, television and film actor

Withdrawn candidates

• Sam Brownback - Senator from Kansas, 1996-present, endorsed McCain
• Jim Gilmore - Governor of Virginia, 1998-2002, currently GOP nominee for 2008 Virginia U.S. Senatorial Election
• Tom Tancredo - Congressman from Colorado, 1999-present; endorsed Romney
• Tommy Thompson - Governor of Wisconsin 1987-2001, Secretary of Health and Human Services 2001-2005; endorsed Giuliani

Current newspaper and magazine reports

• Clinton
• Edwards
• Obama
• Giuliani
• Huckabee
• McCain
• Paul
• Romney
• Thompson