2008 United States presidential election: Difference between revisions
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The United States will hold its 55th quadrennial presidential election on November 4, 2008. The rules are very complicated, and the race is long and expensive; the contenders by mid-January 2008 had already spent some $400 million seeking the nomination of the Republican and Democratic parties. | The United States will hold its 55th quadrennial presidential election on November 4, 2008. The rules are very complicated, and the race is long and expensive; the contenders by mid-January 2008 had already spent some $400 million seeking the nomination of the Republican and Democratic parties. | ||
The leading [[U.S. Democratic Party|Democratic | The leading [[U.S. Democratic Party|Democratic contender]] is Senator [[Barack Obama]], trailed by Senator [[Hillary Clinton]] on New York; all the other serious contenders have dropepd out. Clinton and Obama are tied among Democrats nationwide (at 44%-44%).<ref> See the summary, updated daily, at [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/ Real Clear Politics]</ref> They faced off in the inconclusive "Tsunami Tuesday" [[primary election|primaries]] in 21 states on Feb. 5, and the popular vote was almost exactly 50-50. However Obama won the next seven contests in a row and gained the "momentum" that impressed observers and worried the Clinton camp. With 2,025 delegates needed to win the nomination, by Feb. 13 there were an estimated 1,231 delegates for Clinton and 1,272 for Obama, with Obama's lead growing steadily. The decision may hinge on "superdelegates" who comprise 18% of the delegates. They are 796 lawmakers, governors and state and local party officials who automatically are delegates and can vote any way they wish. By Feb. 13, Clinton had support from 242 superdelegates and Obama had 156, with the rest uncommitted but under heavy pressure from the candidates. The regular delages favored Obama 1116- 989.<ref>See http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_delegate_count.html </ref> ABC News reports on Feb. 13 that by all objective measures, Obama is now the Democratic frontrunner: he has more money, momentum, enthusiasm, and delegates. Three contests on Tuesday resulted in three drubbings, with Obama providing dramatic answers to just about every question that lingered about his candidacy. "Obama had his most impressive night of the competition, not just in the size of his victory margins but in the breadth of support he attracted from men and women, young voters and old, African Americans and whites," concluded Dan Balz and Tim Craig in ''The Washington Post.'' "The results left Clinton, the one-time front-runner for the Democratic nomination, in a deep hole....Obama's winning streak, his large margins and the prospect of more victories next week put Clinton in a tenuous position, despite the close delegate competition."<ref> quoted at [http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/TheNote/story?id=3105288&page=1 ABC News, "The Note" Feb. 13. 2008]</ref> | ||
The [[U.S. Republican Party|Republicans]] will probably go to Arizona Senator [[John McCain]], who has support especially among moderates and independents, and appeals to Democrats as well, but is distrusted by many conservatives. On Tsunami Tuesday he polled 41% to 31% for [[Mitt Romney]] and 21% for [[Mike Huckabee]]. Romney appealed to the more [[American conservatism|conservative Republicans]], but shared that base with Huckabee, who is strongest among evangelicals. Romney had about 256 delegates when he dropped out of the race on Feb 7. With 1,191 delegates needed to win the nomination, McCain now has 819; trailing far behind is Huckabee with 240. McCain is now considered the nominee-presumptive and faces the challenge of rallying the conservative Republicans to his cause. <ref> See the summary, updated daily, at [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/republican_presidential_nomination-192.html Real Clear Politics] and the [http://election.msn.com/ MSNBC results, updated daily]</ref> | The [[U.S. Republican Party|Republicans]] will probably go to Arizona Senator [[John McCain]], who has support especially among moderates and independents, and appeals to Democrats as well, but is distrusted by many conservatives. On Tsunami Tuesday he polled 41% to 31% for [[Mitt Romney]] and 21% for [[Mike Huckabee]]. Romney appealed to the more [[American conservatism|conservative Republicans]], but shared that base with Huckabee, who is strongest among evangelicals. Romney had about 256 delegates when he dropped out of the race on Feb 7. With 1,191 delegates needed to win the nomination, McCain now has 819; trailing far behind is Huckabee with 240. McCain is now considered the nominee-presumptive and faces the challenge of rallying the conservative Republicans to his cause. <ref> See the summary, updated daily, at [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/republican_presidential_nomination-192.html Real Clear Politics] and the [http://election.msn.com/ MSNBC results, updated daily]</ref> | ||
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This election will select the 44th [[President of the United States]] and the 47th Vice President.<ref> The presidential candidate tells the convention whom to select as VP. Rarely, as in 1956, the convention is allowed to vote for its own choice of VP.</ref> Their terms will begin Jan. 20, 2009. President [[George W. Bush]], who has served two terms, is ineligible to run. Vice President [[Dick Cheney]] has long said he would not run. No one close to the Bush administration is in the race, and it has not favored any candidate. | This election will select the 44th [[President of the United States]] and the 47th Vice President.<ref> The presidential candidate tells the convention whom to select as VP. Rarely, as in 1956, the convention is allowed to vote for its own choice of VP.</ref> Their terms will begin Jan. 20, 2009. President [[George W. Bush]], who has served two terms, is ineligible to run. Vice President [[Dick Cheney]] has long said he would not run. No one close to the Bush administration is in the race, and it has not favored any candidate. | ||
Polls in early 2008 show a competitive November election | Polls in early 2008 show a competitive November election between either Clinton or Obama vs. McCain.<ref>It is much too early to predict the November election, but the national match-ups are used to gauge the electability of candidates. See [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/national.html Real Clear Politics summary of national match-ups]</ref> | ||
===Democrats in 2007=== | ===Democrats in 2007=== | ||
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Clinton won an easy victory in the Florida primary, but no delegates were at stake. She scored 59% versus Obama at 33% and Edwards at 14%. If the contest is not settled by the time of the convention in late August, Clinton strategists are making plans to have the convention overturn the decision of the National Committee and restore the delegates it stripped from Florida and Michigan. | Clinton won an easy victory in the Florida primary, but no delegates were at stake. She scored 59% versus Obama at 33% and Edwards at 14%. If the contest is not settled by the time of the convention in late August, Clinton strategists are making plans to have the convention overturn the decision of the National Committee and restore the delegates it stripped from Florida and Michigan. | ||
After the virtual tie on Tsunami Tuesday, analysts warned that Clinton faces an uphill fight. Obama is much better funded, outpacing her 2-1 in January, when he brought in $32 million to her $17 million. | After the virtual tie on Tsunami Tuesday, analysts warned that Clinton faces an uphill fight. Obama is much better funded, outpacing her 2-1 in January, when he brought in $32 million to her $17 million. Obama swept all the contests after Feb. 5, winning major states such as Virginia by a landslide, and cutting deeply into Clinton's coalition. Clinton replaced her campaign manager but observers warned that after Obama's wins on Feb. 12 he has the momentum and the money and her situation is increasingly precarious, even though the two remain tied in popularity. | ||
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Analysts say his inability to broaden his base beyond evangelicals is his biggest weakness when it comes to winning primaries, together with his weak financial base.<ref> Perry Bacon Jr., "The Key in South Carolina: Huckabee Fails to Get Decisive Edge Among Evangelicals," [http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/01/19/AR2008011903229.html ''Washington Post'' Jan. 20, 2008]</ref> | Analysts say his inability to broaden his base beyond evangelicals is his biggest weakness when it comes to winning primaries, together with his weak financial base.<ref> Perry Bacon Jr., "The Key in South Carolina: Huckabee Fails to Get Decisive Edge Among Evangelicals," [http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/01/19/AR2008011903229.html ''Washington Post'' Jan. 20, 2008]</ref> | ||
Huckabee perfected the shoestring operation. He raised only $2.3 million by Oct. 2007, less than 5% of the money of each main rival. He never had enough money to send advance teams to organize events or drum up crowds, nor could he afford fund-raising operations, private polls, big-name political consultants, or a staff of policy advisers and media experts. He relied on volunteers from churches and the home-school movement to schedule his events. His daughter is his national campaign manager. The retail politics of the first states did not cost much. He won in Iowa by relying on his quick wit, fluent oratory, and in lieu of commercials, as many TV and radio talk-show appearances as he could schedule. To draw crowds his rallies featured actor Chuck Norris and his own playing the bass guitar with local rock bands. As the election calendar turned to larger states he lacked the cash to compete, so in late Jan. 2008 he cut back on Florida operations to concentrate on a few smaller, overlooked southern states on Feb. 5.<ref>David D. Kirkpatrick, "Huckabee’s Money Woes Curtail Campaign," [http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/01/22/huckabees-money-woes-curtail-campaign/ ''New York Times'' Jan. 22. 2008]</ref> | Huckabee perfected the shoestring operation. He raised only $2.3 million by Oct. 2007, less than 5% of the money of each main rival. He never had enough money to send advance teams to organize events or drum up crowds, nor could he afford fund-raising operations, private polls, big-name political consultants, or a staff of policy advisers and media experts. He relied on volunteers from churches and the home-school movement to schedule his events. His daughter is his national campaign manager. The retail politics of the first states did not cost much. He won in Iowa by relying on his quick wit, fluent oratory, and in lieu of commercials, as many TV and radio talk-show appearances as he could schedule. To draw crowds his rallies featured actor Chuck Norris and his own playing the bass guitar with local rock bands. As the election calendar turned to larger states he lacked the cash to compete, so in late Jan. 2008 he cut back on Florida operations to concentrate on a few smaller, overlooked southern states on Feb. 5. He did well there and insists he will continue to campaign--and thus have a loud voice in party affairs-- even though it is now mathematically impossible for him to win a majority of the delegates.<ref>David D. Kirkpatrick, "Huckabee’s Money Woes Curtail Campaign," [http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/01/22/huckabees-money-woes-curtail-campaign/ ''New York Times'' Jan. 22. 2008]</ref> | ||
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Six states plus the District of Columbia hold Democratic contests in mid-February, with some 400 delegates. Washington held caucuses on February 9th and will hold a primary on February 19th. The Democrats select all their delegates at the caucuses, with the primary being non-binding; the Republicans will select some delegates at the caucuses and some in the primary. Maine held its Democratic caucus Feb 10; Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia held primaries on Feb. 12. | Six states plus the District of Columbia hold Democratic contests in mid-February, with some 400 delegates. Washington held caucuses on February 9th and will hold a primary on February 19th. The Democrats select all their delegates at the caucuses, with the primary being non-binding; the Republicans will select some delegates at the caucuses and some in the primary. Maine held its Democratic caucus Feb 10; Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia held primaries on Feb. 12. | ||
Obama won the Democratic caucuses in Washington and Maine, and the "Potomac Primaries" in Virginia, Maryland, and the District of Columbia. | Obama won the Democratic caucuses in Washington and Maine, and the "Potomac Primaries" in Virginia, Maryland, and the District of Columbia. Obama received 161 delegates to Clinton's 106, leaving Obama with a small edge in delegate count. | ||
Wisconsin and Hawaii vote February 19. After that March 4 becomes the the next critical date for | Wisconsin and Hawaii vote February 19. After that March 4 becomes the the next critical date for Clinton is Ohio (161 delegates) and Texas (228 delegates). To remain viable she has to start winning again. | ||
==Enthusiasm== | ==Enthusiasm== |
Revision as of 18:12, 13 February 2008
The United States will hold its 55th quadrennial presidential election on November 4, 2008. The rules are very complicated, and the race is long and expensive; the contenders by mid-January 2008 had already spent some $400 million seeking the nomination of the Republican and Democratic parties.
The leading Democratic contender is Senator Barack Obama, trailed by Senator Hillary Clinton on New York; all the other serious contenders have dropepd out. Clinton and Obama are tied among Democrats nationwide (at 44%-44%).[1] They faced off in the inconclusive "Tsunami Tuesday" primaries in 21 states on Feb. 5, and the popular vote was almost exactly 50-50. However Obama won the next seven contests in a row and gained the "momentum" that impressed observers and worried the Clinton camp. With 2,025 delegates needed to win the nomination, by Feb. 13 there were an estimated 1,231 delegates for Clinton and 1,272 for Obama, with Obama's lead growing steadily. The decision may hinge on "superdelegates" who comprise 18% of the delegates. They are 796 lawmakers, governors and state and local party officials who automatically are delegates and can vote any way they wish. By Feb. 13, Clinton had support from 242 superdelegates and Obama had 156, with the rest uncommitted but under heavy pressure from the candidates. The regular delages favored Obama 1116- 989.[2] ABC News reports on Feb. 13 that by all objective measures, Obama is now the Democratic frontrunner: he has more money, momentum, enthusiasm, and delegates. Three contests on Tuesday resulted in three drubbings, with Obama providing dramatic answers to just about every question that lingered about his candidacy. "Obama had his most impressive night of the competition, not just in the size of his victory margins but in the breadth of support he attracted from men and women, young voters and old, African Americans and whites," concluded Dan Balz and Tim Craig in The Washington Post. "The results left Clinton, the one-time front-runner for the Democratic nomination, in a deep hole....Obama's winning streak, his large margins and the prospect of more victories next week put Clinton in a tenuous position, despite the close delegate competition."[3]
The Republicans will probably go to Arizona Senator John McCain, who has support especially among moderates and independents, and appeals to Democrats as well, but is distrusted by many conservatives. On Tsunami Tuesday he polled 41% to 31% for Mitt Romney and 21% for Mike Huckabee. Romney appealed to the more conservative Republicans, but shared that base with Huckabee, who is strongest among evangelicals. Romney had about 256 delegates when he dropped out of the race on Feb 7. With 1,191 delegates needed to win the nomination, McCain now has 819; trailing far behind is Huckabee with 240. McCain is now considered the nominee-presumptive and faces the challenge of rallying the conservative Republicans to his cause. [4]
Each party will officially name its ticket at its national convention in late August in Denver for the Democrats and early September in St. Paul, Minnesota, for the GOP. The GOP convention will be a nominal affair, but the Democratic convention may see the final showdown between the Obama and Clinton forces.
New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg has been making preparations for the possibility of becoming an independent candidate. As a multi-billionaire he has the capacity to finance his own campaign without outside contributions or federal matching funds.
This election will select the 44th President of the United States and the 47th Vice President.[5] Their terms will begin Jan. 20, 2009. President George W. Bush, who has served two terms, is ineligible to run. Vice President Dick Cheney has long said he would not run. No one close to the Bush administration is in the race, and it has not favored any candidate.
Polls in early 2008 show a competitive November election between either Clinton or Obama vs. McCain.[6]
Democrats in 2007
In the Democratic race, throughout 2007 Clinton had a wide lead over Obama and Edwards, but Obama gained rapidly in early 2008, while Edwards faded.
Democratic Contenders
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Republicans in 2007
- See also: U.S. Republican Party
As President Bush is constitutionally ineligible to seek another term and Vice President Dick Cheney has announced that he will not seek the Republican presidential nomination, the Republican field wide was open for the nomination. Various politicians began exploratory committees, fundraising efforts, and other preliminary activities to determine if they had the support they needed to run.
By September 2007, the leaders were former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, and Arizona Senator John McCain, who dropped sharply from his leading position after endorsing immigration reform.
Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee entered as a dark horse but shot to the top rank in December 2007, and won the Iowa caucus. His base is primarily evangelical Christians, who are about 35% of the GOP vote, but he does quite poorly among other segments of the Republican party. By mid-January 2008 Thompson and Giuliani were doing poorly, and both dropped out in late January. Romney dropped out after a poor showing in the February 5th primaries.
Minor candidates who entered but dropped out are Colorado Representative Tom Tancredo, former Kansas Senator Sam Brownback, former Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore and former Wisconsin Governor Tommy Thompson, and California Representative Duncan Hunter. Other candidates who considered running who did not enter include former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, Nebraska Senator Chuck Hagel, and former New York Governor George Pataki.
GOP Contenders
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2008
Withdrawn Candidates
The Republican primaries shows a contest in turmoil, which may indicate the splintering of the Reagan coalition of social conservatives, the religious right, national-defense hawks, and advocates of low taxes. McCain started with a large lead but collapsed in the spring, because of grass roots opposition to his liberal stance on immigration, and bad financial strategy that left the campaign broke. But McCain soldiered on, making a comeback in early January, 2008, and winning the New Hampshire primary by 37%-32% for Romney. Rudy Giuliani, the former Mayor of New York, used his heroic image from the 9-11 Attack, and promise of a strong counter-terrorism policy, to vault to the lead in mid-2007, despite moderate social policies that the large conservative wing disliked. In early December, however, his negatives were catching up and he fell from the 30% to the 20% level nationally, and ran a weak fourth in New Hampshire at 9%. His strategy involves a comeback in the Florida primary.[28] Hollywood actor and former senator Fred Thompson entered the race late, but appealed to many conservatives looking for another Ronald Reagan. His ineffective campaign style led to a steady erosion of support; he polled 1% in New Hampshire and dropped out after a weak third-place in South Carolina. Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, by reversing previous moderate positions, suddenly became a hard-line conservative spokesman. His Mormon religion, however, caused distrust among the religious conservatives who bulk large in some primaries. Romney's strategy was to pour millions of dollars (much of it his personal money) into Iowa and New Hampshire, hoping that victories there on January 3 and 8, 2008, would generate massive favorable publicity. That publicity supposedly would propel him into a dominant position in the Super Tuesday primaries on Feb. 5, 2008, when 45% of the delegates will be chosen.
Every prediction and game plan was shattered in November, when Mike Huckabee, a little known former governor of Arkansas, shot to the top of the polls and won in Iowa. His base comprises evangelical Christians, who comprise 35% of national GOP voters. Evangelicals comprise 48%-68% of Republicans in the South and border states, 47% in Iowa, and only 11% in New Hampshire. They are 33% in Michigan, 29% in Florida, 27% in California and 14% in New York.[29]
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The candidates in primaries and caucuses
For daily updates on the polls see [11]
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Later primaries
The proportional representation rule for Democratic primaries meant that Tsunami Tuesday did not end the race, as Clinton and Obama are close in delegate count. On Feb. 9 Obama won easily in Nebraska, Louisiana and Washington state, and picked up delegates in the U.S. Virgin Islands. With 2,025 delegates needed to win the nomination, the Associated Press on Feb. 10 estimated 1,095 for Clinton and 1,070 for Obama.[47]
The vote in Louisiana split along racial and age lines. Obama won the African-American vote 82% to 18%, while Clinton won among whites 70% to 26%. Obama won those under age 65 while Clinton won voter over 65.
Six states plus the District of Columbia hold Democratic contests in mid-February, with some 400 delegates. Washington held caucuses on February 9th and will hold a primary on February 19th. The Democrats select all their delegates at the caucuses, with the primary being non-binding; the Republicans will select some delegates at the caucuses and some in the primary. Maine held its Democratic caucus Feb 10; Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia held primaries on Feb. 12.
Obama won the Democratic caucuses in Washington and Maine, and the "Potomac Primaries" in Virginia, Maryland, and the District of Columbia. Obama received 161 delegates to Clinton's 106, leaving Obama with a small edge in delegate count.
Wisconsin and Hawaii vote February 19. After that March 4 becomes the the next critical date for Clinton is Ohio (161 delegates) and Texas (228 delegates). To remain viable she has to start winning again.
Enthusiasm
Polls show Americans are unusually focused on this year's election, more so than for any recent election at this time in the election-year cycle. The Gallup poll found in early February that 71% said they had given "quite a lot of thought" to the election, a number that Gallup called "extraordinarily high" for this time in the election cycle. The comparable rate in early 2004 was only 58%. Gallup gives four explanations. First, no incumbents are running for re-election, so both nominations are up for grabs. Second, this year's "cast of characters" has unique characteristics and appeal. For the first time in U.S. history major-party front-runners this deep into the process have included a woman, a black, a Mormon, and a Baptist minister. Third, the primary and caucus season occur much earlier. Fourth, the races themselves got underway much earlier than usual, with full-scale announcements and campaigns initiated a year ago or more.[48]
Gallup research has shown that Democrats are in general more enthusiastic about their candidates in 2008 than are Republicans. Democrats have turned out in far larger and more enthusiastic rallies, and numbered far more supporters in the Iowa, New Hampshire and Florida contests, even though the parties were about evenly balanced in those states in 2000 and 2004. On Tsunami Tuesday, twice as many people voted in the Democratic primaries compared to the GOP. McCain noted that turnout among Republican voters has been anemic while Democrats have shown up to primaries and caucuses in record numbers. "I've said many times, we've got a lot of work to do to energize our base".[49]
As 2008 opened the Democratic candidates have so far raised $223 million, compared with $152 million for Republican candidates.
A Rasmussen poll at the end of January found that 47% of Democrats say they are "passionately and deeply committed" to their candidate, compared to only 28% of Republicans. Among Democrats who are passionate about a candidate, 53% favor Clinton and 28% Obama. Among passionate Republicans, 34% support Romney, 23% Huckabee, 10% McCain and 10% Paul. Americans under 30 and those who earn less than $40,000 a year are more likely to be passionate about a candidate than older and higher-income Americans. 27% of all voters believe McCain is too old to be President, while 56%, disagree and say he is not too old for the job.[50]
Issues
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The issues Democrats care about heightened voter turnout, but they have not differentiated the candidates. That is, there is very little correlation between which issues Democrats see as most important and who they have voted for. Thus health care is mentioned by 20-25% of Democrats as a top concern, but they split their votes same way as Democrats who do not rank the issue highly. For the Democrats personal qualities have been far more influential.[52]
Issues have mattered more for Republicans. The Iraq issue hurt McCain in summer 2007, but started to help him in the fall when the public sensed gains in the war there due to the "surge" McCain championed. McCain also gains among Republicans who criticize Bush's handling of the economy, while those who praise Bush support Romney. Immigration has been Romney’s best issue, but the constituency viewing it as a high priority has been too small to carry a primary for him. In Florida, Romney had a 43% to 25% edge over McCain among voters who said immigration is the most important issue; however, they constituted only 16% of the voters.[53]
Mechanics
The rules are complicated and differ for each state and each party.[54]The campaign will have three stages. In January, come the preliminaries, with attention focused on the Iowa caucus (Jan. 3) and the New Hampshire primary (Jan 8), along with contests in Michigan, South Carolina and Florida. Then comes Super Tuesday Feb 5, with 40% of the delegates chosen. After that a string of primaries will be held, which will become increasingly important if the races become deadlocked on Feb. 5. The nominees could possibly be undecided until the national conventions in August/September.
The Democratic party rules are that delegates are awarded to the candidate in proportion to their votes in the primary. In addition the Democrats have "superdelegates" who are party officials who automatically become delegates. The Republicans allow more complex rules. Several states (Florida, with a Jan. 29 primary, and New York and New Jersey with primaries on Feb. 5) have "winner take all" rules that magnify their importance.
Most states use primaries which are ordinary elections. Some are open only to party members; in other like New Hampshire, registered independents can vote in one or the other party primary.
The caucuses are a leftover from 19th century. In Iowa voters to go to a local school or meeting place; Republicans sign in with their vote and leave. Democrats must spend an hour or two in a "caucus" to register their preference. Supporters of candidates with under 15% at that caucus move to another candidate. The Democratic Iowa caucus is a mixture of discussion, debating, a little horse-trading, and some consensus-building between neighbors. Anything can happen, but the media will report on the distribution of support at the end of the evening. (The actual national delegates in Iowa will be chosen months later, and are few in number.)
Third parties choose their candidates at their own, smaller conventions that receive little coverage.
Interest groups
Labor unions
The New Deal Coalition forged by Franklin D. Roosevelt in the 1930s dominated national politics until the mid-1960s. One key reason was the close alliance of the party with labor unions. Since the 1960s, however, union membership has fallen by 2/3. In the 1980s unions came under assault from business and the party was unable to help them. Unions in recent years have increased their activism in the election cycle, especially in terms of funding and get-out-the-vote campaigns.
In 2004 and 2006, unions spent a combined $561 million to help elect their preferred candidates (most of them Democrats). That is nearly a 50% increase over the $381 million spent on the previous two campaigns. However they are still outspent by business; in 2000, companies were responsible for three times as much spending as unions. By the 2006 election, companies and their employees spent $491 million on elections, compared with $264 million for labor unions. Labor spent $32 million on its own mailings and television and radio commercials for the 2004 and 2006 elections, a nearly fivefold jump over the previous four years. Polls show 74% of voters who belong to an AFL-CIO-affiliated union voted for the congressional candidate endorsed by their union in 2006, up from 70% in 2004 and 68% in 2002.[55]
Candidates for the Democratic nomination
Top tier
- Hillary Clinton - Former First Lady (1993-2001) and Senator from New York since 2001
- Barack Obama - Senator from Illinois since 2004
Second tier
- Mike Gravel - Former Senator from Alaska (1969-1981)
Withdrawn candidates
- Joe Biden - Senator from Delaware since 1973, head of Senate Foreign Relations Committee
- Christopher Dodd - Senator from Connecticut since 1981
- John Edwards - Former Senator from South Carolina (1998-2004) and Democratic Vice Presidential nominee in 2004
- Dennis Kucinich - Congressman from Ohio
- Bill Richardson - Governor of New Mexico since 2003, Secretary of Energy from 1997-2001, Ambassador to the United Nations from 1997-1998
Candidates for the Republican nomination
Top tier
- Mike Huckabee - Governor of Arkansas 1996-2007
- John McCain - Senator from Arizona 1987-present, sought GOP nomination in 2000 losing to Bush
Second tier
- Alan Keyes - Diplomat under Ronald Reagan and former Republican senatorial nominee from Illinois
- Ron Paul - Congressman from Texas 1997-present, Libertarian Party presidential nominee in 1988
Withdrawn candidates
- Sam Brownback - Senator from Kansas, 1996-present, endorsed McCain
- Jim Gilmore - Governor of Virginia, 1998-2002, currently GOP nominee for 2008 Virginia U.S. Senatorial Election
- Duncan Hunter - Congressman from California, 1981-present
- Tom Tancredo - Congressman from Colorado, 1999-present; endorsed Romney
- Fred Thompson - Senator from Tennessee, 1994-2003, television and film actor
- Tommy Thompson - Governor of Wisconsin 1987-2001, Secretary of Health and Human Services 2001-2005; endorsed Giuliani
Current newspaper and magazine reports
External links
- Rhodes Cook, "Super Tuesday," in Sabato's CrystalBall '08 Jan. 31, 2008
- exit polls, from MSNBC
- Delegate counts for major candidates; upcoming schedule
- Campaign journalism, statistical reports on media coverage
notes
- ↑ See the summary, updated daily, at Real Clear Politics
- ↑ See http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_delegate_count.html
- ↑ quoted at ABC News, "The Note" Feb. 13. 2008
- ↑ See the summary, updated daily, at Real Clear Politics and the MSNBC results, updated daily
- ↑ The presidential candidate tells the convention whom to select as VP. Rarely, as in 1956, the convention is allowed to vote for its own choice of VP.
- ↑ It is much too early to predict the November election, but the national match-ups are used to gauge the electability of candidates. See Real Clear Politics summary of national match-ups
- ↑ see [1]
- ↑ quoted (London) Telegraph Dec-9-2007
- ↑ Brian Friel, Richard E. Cohen and Kirk Victor, "Obama: Most Liberal Senator In 2007" National Journal, Jan. 31, 2008
- ↑ Kristin Jensen and Julianna Goldman, "Clinton, Obama Battle Makes for Partisan Politics Without Unity," Bloomberg News, Jan. 10, 2008
- ↑ See NBC report at [2], and CNN report at [3]; see for detailed exit polls
- ↑ Ben Smith, "Racial tensions roil Democratic race," Politico Jan 11, 2008
- ↑ "Senator Obama's victory speech [in Iowa] was a concise oratorical gem. No candidate in either party can move an audience like he can.... He's...charismatic." Bob Herbert, "The Obama Phenomenon," The New York Times, Jan. 5, 2008; Obama Dec 27. 2007 speech at Obama official website; Jonathan Greenberger, ABC News, May 17, 2007 report
- ↑ Kristin Jensen and Julianna Goldman, "Clinton, Obama Battle Makes for Partisan Politics Without Unity," Bloomberg News, Jan. 10, 2008
- ↑ Brian Friel, Richard E. Cohen and Kirk Victor, "Obama: Most Liberal Senator In 2007" National Journal, Jan. 31, 2008
- ↑ http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/us_elections/article3134308.ece
- ↑ See NBC report at [4], and CNN report at [5]
- ↑ Carrie Budoff Brown, "Obama faces off against both Clintons," POLITICO Jan 20, 2008
- ↑ Mark Z. Barabak, "Obama easily wins heated S.C. primary," Los Angeles Times Jan. 27, 2008; Larry Sabato, Sabato's Crystal Ball - Vol. VI#3 Jan 24, 2008.
- ↑ . Evangelicals comprise 48%-68% of Republicans in the South and border states, 47% in Iowa, and only 11% in New Hampshire. Andrew Kohut, "The G.O.P.’s Unanswered Question," New York Times Jan. 11, 2008
- ↑ See criticism reported by Jennifer Rubin, "Romney and Huckabee: Club for Growth Comparisons," from Human Events Aug. 24, 2007
- ↑ Dan Balz, "Huckabee's Rise and Rise," Washington Post Dec. 10, 2007; Michael D. Shear and Juliet Eilperin, "Suddenly, Huckabee Is in Romney's Rearview Mirror," Washington Post Nov. 25, 2007; "Shields and Brooks Mull Iowa Election Push, Baseball Scandal" PBS, Dec. 14, 2007
- ↑ Perry Bacon Jr., "The Key in South Carolina: Huckabee Fails to Get Decisive Edge Among Evangelicals," Washington Post Jan. 20, 2008
- ↑ David D. Kirkpatrick, "Huckabee’s Money Woes Curtail Campaign," New York Times Jan. 22. 2008
- ↑ Roger Cohen, "McCain's comeback," International Herald Tribune Jan. 16, 2008
- ↑ Roger Cohen, "McCain's comeback," International Herald Tribune Jan. 16, 2008; For voting details see CNN at [6]
- ↑ John M. Broder, "McCain, Long a G.O.P. Maverick, Is Gaining Mainstream Support," New York Times Jan. 28, 2008; Adam Nagourney, "McCain’s Victory in a Party-Only Primary Raises the Hurdles for Romney," New York Times Jan. 30, 2008
- ↑ For current polls see [7]
- ↑ Andrew Kohut, "The G.O.P.’s Unanswered Question," New York Times Jan. 11, 2008
- ↑ Matthew Continetti, "The Giuliani Implosion: From frontrunner to also-ran in eight short weeks," The Weekly Standard Jan. 21, 2008; Justin Wolfers, "How Rudy's Bet Went Wrong," Wall Street Journal Jan. 23, 2008; Michael Powell and Michael Cooper, "For Giuliani, a Dizzying Free-Fall", New York Times Jan. 30, 2008
- ↑ Giuliani Exits Race, Endorses McCain, Associated Press, 30 January 2008.
- ↑ Adam Nagourney, "McCain’s Victory in a Party-Only Primary Raises the Hurdles for Romney," New York Times Jan. 30, 2008
- ↑ In California Romney did much worse than polls predicted (the polls had him tied with McCain but he lost by 8 points). In the closing days he banked heavily on the anti-immigrant argument with intense TV commercials. Romney did well among the 28% who saw illegal immigration as the top issue, beating McCain by 50%-26%. However he lost heavily among the 60% who were more tolerant of immigrants (McCain won them by 50%-28%). Asians and Latinos comprised 19% of the GOP vote in California; most are immigrants or children of immigrants and they voted for McCain over Romney by 48%-21%.
- ↑ Michael Scherer, "Romney's Big Push Nets Little," Time Feb. 06, 2008
- ↑ Zogby data based on 867 likely caucus–goers; see press release 12-30-07 at [8]
- ↑ See NBC report at [9], and CNN report at [10]
- ↑ Michael Luo and Michael Cooper, "Focus Shifts to South Carolina for Romney and Rivals." New York Times Jan 17, 2008
- ↑ Rasmussen Reports, "Michigan Exit Polls Show Challenges for McCain," Jan 16, 2008 online
- ↑ Cathleen Decker and Seema Mehta, "Clinton, Obama reach new level of rancor," Los Angeles Times Jan 22. 2008
- ↑ Christopher Cooper, Valerie Bauerlein and Corey Dade, "New Machine: In South, Democrats' Tactics May Change Political Game," Wall Street Journal Jan. 23 2008
- ↑ See summary results; Alan Fram and Mike Mokrzycki, "McCain won over moderates in S.C." AP Report, Jan. 20, 2008
- ↑ Mark Z. Barabak, "Obama easily wins heated S.C. primary," Los Angeles Times Jan. 27, 2008; Gary Langer and Brian Hartman, "Black Voters Lift Obama to S.C. Victory; Obama Showing Among White Voters in S.C. Indicates Uphill Battle Ahead," ABC News Jan. 26, 2008
- ↑ Nielsen Co. Press Release, "Romney Leads in Florida Primary Advertising, Nielsen Reports" Jan, 28, 2008
- ↑ Adam Nagourney, "No Quick Knockouts as Races Move to New Terrain," New York Times Jan, 20, 2008; Doyle McManus, "Florida becomes showdown state for GOP," Los Angeles Times Jan. 20, 2008; Elizabeth Holmes, "With a Crowded Republican Field, Candidates Set Sights on Florida," Wall Street Journal Jan. 20, 2008
- ↑ Bob Moser, "Fumbling Florida: Have Democrats already blown their biggest swing state," The Nation Dec. 17, 2007, pp 20-24
- ↑ for explanation, maps and statistics, see Rhodes Cook, "Super Tuesday," in Sabato's CrystalBall '08 Jan. 31, 2008
- ↑ The different news media use different estimation techniques. Some do not count the caucus states, which have heavily favored Obama, until the delegates are fially selected sometime in the spring. AP estimates the way the caucus states will finally vote. Mike McIntyre, "Media and Candidate Methods of Counting Delegates Vary and So Do Totals," New York Times Feb. 9, 2008
- ↑ Frank Newport, "Americans Display Record Level of Interest in the Election." Gallup Feb 5, 2008
- ↑ Alex Frangos and Amy Chozick, "Obama Defeats Clinton in Contests Huckabee Wins Kansas, Louisiana; McCain Grabs Washington State in Close Race," Wall Street Journal Feb. 10, 2008
- ↑ See Rasmussen Report, "Passion Gap: Democrats More Committed to Candidates Than Republicans," Jan. 29, 2008
- ↑ CNN report on exit poll
- ↑ Andrew Kohut, "A Look at the Numbers," New York Times Jan. 31, 2008
- ↑ Andrew Kohut, "A Look at the Numbers," New York Times Jan. 31, 2008
- ↑ For details see the unofficial site "Election 2008: Primary, Caucus, and Convention Phase"
- ↑ Brody Mullins, "Labor Makes Big Comeback In '08 Races; Ramping Up Spending, Unions Get Voters to Polls; The Battle in Nevada; Wall Street Journal Jan. 18, 2008