Arab Spring: Difference between revisions

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| This article consists of:<br>
- the '''summary''' below; a [[/Timelines|'''chronology''']] of main events;  notes on individual [[/Addendum#Arab national movements|national movements]]; notes on the [[/Addendum#The international response|'''international response''']]; and,  notes on the major [[Catalogs#Persona|'''persona''']] involved.
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Although there have been other interpretations, the term '''Arab Spring''' is now taken to refer to the sequence of protest movements that started with the successful uprising  in Tunisia that began in December 2010. The subsequent protest  movements  in other Arab countries were mainly motivated by a wish to put an end to what was perceived as government oppression, corruption and incompetence. Many sought to do so by introducing a  measure of democratic accountability, but the various national movements had little else in common, apart from  confidence inspired by the Tunisian success. The protests have so far resulted in uncertain regime change in Tunisia and Egypt, and  promises of limited democratic change in Algeria, Jordan, Morocco and Saudi Arabia. They have met a violent response in Libya, Syria and Bahrain, and the outcome in Syria is particularly uncertain.
==Background: the Arab condition==
The political structures of the countries involved in the Arab uprisings have (with the exception of Lebanon) been categorised as "authoritarian" (with Syria, Libya and Saudi Arabia ranking among the 15 least democratic countries<ref>[http://graphics.eiu.com/PDF/Democracy_Index_2010_web.pdf ''The Democracy Index 2010'', Economist Intelligence Unit]</ref>). Five of them have suffered unusually high levels of corruption (Morocco, Egypt, Algeria, Libya and Yemen appear among the upper half  in the ranking of  Transparency International's Corruption Perception Index)
<ref name="CPI">''Corruption Perception :Index''[http://www.transparency.org/policy_research./surveys_indices/cpi/2010/in_detail]</ref>. Their populations are predominately ethnically Arab with small native Berber  minorites. They include two mixed oil economies (Algeria and Libya); three oil economies (Bahrain, Oman and Saudi Arabia); six diversified economies (Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Syria and Tunisia); and  one primary export economy (Yemen). The oil-producing countries of Oman, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Libya are among the world's more prosperous countries. The prosperity of  each the others is below, or well below the world average in terms of GDP per head, with Syria ranking 153rd out of a total of 228. According to an estimate based upon data from Egypt, Jordan, Morocco and Tunisia and Yemen, at least 19% of the Arab population lived below the [[poverty line]] at the end of the 1990s<ref>[http://www.arab-api.org/cv/aali-cv/aali/wps0402.pdf Ali Abdel Gadir Ali: ''Poverty in the Arab Region: A Selective Review'', (Background paper prepared for the IFPRI / API Collaborative Research Project on: ''Public Policy and Poverty Reduction in the Arab Region''.)  page 26]</ref>.
==The development of the national movements==
The violent mass protest movements in Tunisia and Egypt succeeded in ousting existing regimes with the intention of achieving democracy, but the true nature of their replacement  regimes has yet to be  established.  The governments of Morocco, Algeria, Jordan and Oman responded to more limited protests with  promises of political and constitutional reform.  Saudi Arabia's administration  sought to avoid confrontation  by announcing a major programme of infrastructure investment. Elsewhere, in Bahrain and Yemen - and particularly in Syria - the protest movements  met with military opposition, and in Libya there is little doubt that opposition to Gadaffi's  government would have been violently crushed had NATO not intervened.
==Civil war in Libya==
In mid-February, government forces opened fire on demonstrators in the Libyan second city of Benghazi. A bitter conflict ensued in which  the rebels took control of the city. The government responded with an aerial bombardment that caused thousands of casualties. There was international outrage at the brutality of its actions and, on 18th March, the United Nations Security Council responded to the Arab League's request for the imposition of a no-fly zone with a resolution that authorised member states to ''to take all necessary measures to protect civilians under threat of attack''. In the course of the following week, air attacks by US, British and French aircraft destroyed the Libyan air force. In the following months there developed a civil war between government forces based in Tripoli in the west of Libya and rebel forces based in Benghazi in the east. After six months of fighting, rebel forces entered the government's Tripoli, hitherto the principal remaining government-held city.
In July 2011, the USA formally recognised Libya’s the National Transitional Council
<ref>[http://www.ntclibya.org/english/about/ ''The Libyan Interim National Council''  (Official Website)]</ref>, Libya's main opposition group, as the country’s legitimate government, but doubts about its integrity were subsequently raised by the killing by a local militia of its  chief of staff, General Abdel Fattah Younis<ref>[http://english.aljazeera.net/programmes/insidestory/2011/08/201181595355669833.html ''Who is in control of the Libyan opposition?'', Al Jazeera, 15 August 2011]</ref>.
==International reactions==
==International reactions==
The Arab League made the key recommendation to the United Nations for a  no-fly zone over Libya but subsequently argued that NATO had exceeded the UN mandate in ita attacks on ground targets. It expressed disapproval of the attacks upon civilians by  the Syrian government, but did not expel Syria from its membership.
The main initiative behind the military intervention in Libya came from the governments of the United States, France and Britain. A crucial factor, however, was an Arab League recommendation to the United Nations for a  no-fly zone. The resolutions  subsequently passed by the Security Council have been described as "the most wide-ranging that it had passed  for more than 20 years <ref>[http://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/270611lyall_grant.pdf. Mark Lyall-Grant: ''Is there an Arab Summer? The UN’s Response to the Arab Spring'', Chatam House, 27 June 2011]]</ref>.  
The European Council later declared its commitment to "the full implementation" of Security Council Resolutions 1970 and 1973<ref>[http://www.europa-eu-un.org/articles/es/article_11150_es.htm ''EU Council conclusions on Libya'', Europa, 20 June 2011]</ref>, but there was also opposition to military intervention, even from within the European Union. There was opposition  by Germany <ref>[http://af.reuters.com/article/topNews/idAFJOE73004520110401 ''Military no cure for Libya crisis: German foreign minister'', Reuters, Apr 1, 2011]</ref>  and  reluctant participation by Italy. Among other reactions was the condemnation of the UN resolution on Libya as comparable to "medieval calls for crusades" Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin (repudiated, however, by President Dmitry Medvedev<ref>[http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-12825717 ''Russia's Vladimir Putin denies Libya rift with Medvedev'', BBC News, 22 March 2011]</ref>
   


The British Ambassador to the United Nations  remarked in June 2011 that the international community had, until recently, devoted too much attention to the Israel/Palestine issue,  and not nearly enough to the issues raised by the lack of political and economic reform in the Arab countries
<ref>[http://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/270611lyall_grant.pdf. Mark Lyall-Grant: ''Is there an Arab Summer? The UN’s Response to the Arab Spring'', Chatam House, 27 June 2011]]</ref>. He  noted, however that the UN Secretary-General had recently made a series of  bold statements on the situations in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Syria, Yemen and Bahrain despite criticisms by some major powers. More significantly, the  resolutions passed by the Security Council had been the most wide-ranging that it had passed  for more than 20 years. It had  referred Libya to the International Criminal Court, adopted widespread sanctions in its resolution 1970; and  authorised military action to protect civilians in its resolution 1973.
In June 2011 the European Council declared its commitment to "the full implementation" of Security Council Resolutions 1970 and 1973<ref>[http://www.europa-eu-un.org/articles/es/article_11150_es.htm ''EU Council conclusions on Libya'', Europa, 20 June 2011]</ref>, although the German goverment had expressed its opposition to military intervention<ref>[http://af.reuters.com/article/topNews/idAFJOE73004520110401 ''Military no cure for Libya crisis: German foreign minister'', Reuters,  Apr 1, 2011]</ref>.


While there is no evidence of non-Arab influences upon the Arab Spring uprisings, and every indication that they came as a sudden surprise to all who were not directly involved, some human rights workers have suggested that the leaks of candid diplomatic cables by the whistleblower organization [[WikiLeaks]] served as a trigger for the uprising.<ref name=TheGuardian2011-05-13>
While there is no evidence of non-Arab influences upon the Arab Spring uprisings, and every indication that they came as a sudden surprise to all who were not directly involved, some human rights workers have suggested that the leaks of candid diplomatic cables by the whistleblower organization [[WikiLeaks]] served as a trigger for the uprising.<ref name=TheGuardian2011-05-13>
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==Projected outcomes==
A May 2011 assessment by the Economist Intelligence Unit put the most probable outcome as the creation of functioning democracies in Tunisia and Egypt, together with some relaxations of authoritarianism in the other Arab countries. Much lower probabilities  were assigned to the equally likely outcomes of comprehensive maintenance of authoritarianism, or a widespread trend toward significant democratic accountability<ref>[http://www.slideshare.net/economistintelligenceunit/eiu-report-spring-tidewill-the-arab-risings-yield-democracy-dictatorship-or-disorder ''Will the Arab risings yield democracy dictatorship or disorder?" EIU May 2011 White Paper]</ref>. Neither the persistence of the Syrian protest  nor the ferocity of its army's response were fully evident at that time. The BBC's security correspndent, Frank Gardner, has since reported that most analysts doubt that President Assad can survive in the long term, although his prospects may be improved by misgivings about his possible successors<ref>[http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-14080126 Frank Gardner: ''Arab Spring: Where it is now and where it may be going'', BBC News 10 July 2011]</ref>.
==References==
{{reflist|2}}

Revision as of 03:23, 26 August 2011

International reactions

The main initiative behind the military intervention in Libya came from the governments of the United States, France and Britain. A crucial factor, however, was an Arab League recommendation to the United Nations for a no-fly zone. The resolutions subsequently passed by the Security Council have been described as "the most wide-ranging that it had passed for more than 20 years [1]. The European Council later declared its commitment to "the full implementation" of Security Council Resolutions 1970 and 1973[2], but there was also opposition to military intervention, even from within the European Union. There was opposition by Germany [3] and reluctant participation by Italy. Among other reactions was the condemnation of the UN resolution on Libya as comparable to "medieval calls for crusades" Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin (repudiated, however, by President Dmitry Medvedev[4]


While there is no evidence of non-Arab influences upon the Arab Spring uprisings, and every indication that they came as a sudden surprise to all who were not directly involved, some human rights workers have suggested that the leaks of candid diplomatic cables by the whistleblower organization WikiLeaks served as a trigger for the uprising.[5][6][7]

  1. ↑ Mark Lyall-Grant: Is there an Arab Summer? The UN’s Response to the Arab Spring, Chatam House, 27 June 2011]
  2. ↑ EU Council conclusions on Libya, Europa, 20 June 2011
  3. ↑ Military no cure for Libya crisis: German foreign minister, Reuters, Apr 1, 2011
  4. ↑ Russia's Vladimir Putin denies Libya rift with Medvedev, BBC News, 22 March 2011
  5. ↑ Peter Walker. Amnesty International hails WikiLeaks and Guardian as Arab spring 'catalysts', The Guardian, 2011-05-13. Retrieved on 2011-08-20.
  6. ↑ Tony Benn. The flowers of the Arab spring grow from buds of free information, The New Statesman, 2011-04-14. Retrieved on 2011-08-20.
  7. ↑ WikiLeaks hailed as catalyst in Arab Spring, Politico, 2011-05-13. Retrieved on 2011-08-20.
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