Recession of 2009/Timelines

(for earlier events see the crash of 2008 timelines)

Major economic events

2008, 4th quarter

World

World GDP falls at an annualised rate of 6% (IMF estimate)[1]

G20 leaders agree on need for fiscal stimulus [2]

The oil price falls. (November US light $60/barrel, down from its July $147 peak)[3].

United States

Federal Reserve Bank promises to buy up to $500 billion worth of mortgage-backed securities guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and up to $100billion worth of their direct debt [4].

Federal Reserve Bank cuts its discount rate to 0 to 1/4 per cent [5].

Federal Reserve Bank's $800 billion support package [6]

Federal Reserve Bank buys mortgage-backed securities - Bank promises to buy up to $500 billion worth of mortgage-backed securities guarantee by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and up to $100billion worth of their direct debt [7].

US Federal Reserve Bank's quantitative easing - Open market operations raise the amount of base money from $0.9 trillion to $2.2 trillion [8][9][10]

Personal saving ratio rises to 3.8% (compared with 1.7% for the year 2007)[11]

Europe

European Central Bank cuts its main discount rate from 3.75% to 2.5" [12]

Bank of England cuts bank rate from 4.5% to 2%

Britain adopts a major fiscal stimulus package [13].

British Government authorises the Bank of England to create an "Asset Purchase Facility" for the purpose of quantitative easing (with profits to be paid to the Government, and losses to be borne by the Government)[14]

German bank rescue package is agreed [15].

German Chancellor rejects fiscal stimulus policies ("senseless race to spend billions") [16].

Asia

China announces a $586 billion fiscal stimulus [17]

2009, 1st quarter

World

World trade falls - the value of trade by the G7 countries is 23% below that of Q1 2008, and the vale of OECD trade in goods has fallen by 30%[18].

Trade protection grows - World Bank reports 47 trade restrictions by 17 G20 countries [19]

Developing countries lose exports [20].

United States

Industrial capacity utilisation falls to 69%

Congress approves stimulus package - American Recovery and Reinvestment Act(H.R. 1) - a $839 billion stimulus package [21]

Financial Stability Plan - Government launches a plan intended to restore confidence in the financial system (including mandatory stress tests for major banks) and to provide financial assistance to households and businesses[22]

- including the Term Asset-backed Loan Facility (TALF)[23].

Federal Reserve plans to increase the size of its balance sheet to a total of up to $200 billion. [24]

Public Private Partnership Investment Program announced [25] for the purchase of $1 trillion worth of toxic assets from banks.

Personal saving ratio rises to 5.0% (compared with 1.7% for the year 2007)[26]

Europe

European Central Bank cuts MRO rate to 2% [27]

UK Fiscal stimulus announced - including a temporary reduction of the rate of value-added tax from 17.5% to 15%, a bringing forward of £3 billion of capital investment, and a range of minor tax reductions.

Bank of England starts quantitative easing [28] and Asset protection [29][30]

Bank of England cuts discount rate cut- from 2% to 1.5% [31].

UK banks lent £185 bn under the Special Liquidity Scheme [32]

UK household saving ratio rises to 3.9% (compared to 1.7% for the year 2008)[33][34]

Germany introduces major fiscal stimulus package [35]

2009, 2nd quarter

World

Oil price rises - to over $70 per barrel

Partial recovery of the interbank market ((LIBOR-OIS spreads fall to pre-Lehman levels)

United States

Federal Reserve balance sheet total reaches $2045 billion [36]

Industrial capacity utilisation stable at about 69%[37]

Banks fail stress tests - of the 19 banks tested, it was found that ten of them need to raise a total of $74.6bn. Any who fail to raise their quota will come under increased government control.

10 banks repay Treasury loans' - received under the Troubled Asset Relief Program.

Mark to market rule eased for inactive markets to what an asset could fetch in an "orderly" transaction (not including distressed transactions or fire-sales)[38]

Europe

ECB discount rate cut to 1 percent - the interest rate on the main refinancing operations of the Eurosystem be decreased by 25 basis points to 1.00%, from 13/05/09[39].

ECB quantitative easing starts - with plans to buy €60bn worth of bonds. [40]

ECB balance sheet total reaches €2,000 billion [41].

Ireland's supplementary budget - a number of tax increases and public expenditure cuts designed to reduce the deficit to 10.75 per cent of GDP for 2009 [42].

Bank of England cuts discount rate to 0.5% and announces £75 billion asset purchase under its Asset Purchase Scheme [43] .

Bank of England's balance sheet total reaches £227 billion [44]

UK household saving rate rises to 5.6% (compared with 1.7% for the year 2008)[45][46]

Asia

Bank of Japan's balance sheet total reaches Y110,000 billion [47].

2009 3rd quarter

World

Money market confidence improves: LIBOR-OIS spread falls to about 25 basis points (from a Q4 2008 peak of over 200, and compared with pre-crisis levels of around 10)[48].

Europe

UK GDP down 0.4% on Q2

UK index of industrial production (August) 10.9% down on a August 2008.

Asia

Japan's consumer prices down 2.2% in September compared with the previous September.

2009 4th quarter

United States

The unemployment rate tops 10% in October.

Federal Reserve expects to keep its discount rate near zero until the end of Q1 2010, subject to stated circumstances [49]

Europe

Germany plans further fiscal stimulus - by tax cuts of about 1% of GDP#[50]

Bank of England increases asset purchase programme by £25 billion to £200 billion[51]