Eurozone crisis/Addendum: Difference between revisions
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Revision as of 07:48, 13 May 2011
The financial status of the PIIGS countries
Portugal Ireland Italy Greece Spain Public debt. 2010 (per cent GDP)[1] 83.1 99.4 118.4 130.2 63.5 Percentage of public debt that is foreign-owned 2007[2] 55 62 42 48 Average time to maturity of public debt, years[3] 6.6 6.9 7.2 7.8 6.4 Primary budget deficit, 2010 (per cent GDP)[1] 4.1 29.3 0.8 2.2 7.3 Spreads (against 10 year German bunds) December 2010, per cent[4] 3.5 6.0 1.7 9.5 2.3 S&P credit rating, February 2011 [5] A- AA A+ BB+ AA Current account deficit, 2010 (per cent of GDP)[6] 10.0 2.7 2.9 10.8 4.8
- ↑ 1.0 1.1 WEO projections, IMF Fiscal Monitor, November 2010
- ↑ ECB
- ↑ Global Debt and Deleveraging from McKinsey and the Economist, June 26 2010
- ↑ Euro Intelligence, 3rd December 2010
- ↑ Guardian Datablog, 19 July 2010 (ratings go AAA, AA, A, BBB, BB, B)
- ↑ Regional Economic Outlook, Europe, IMF October 2010
Sustainability adjustments
The primary budget balance (as a percentage of gdp) required to avoid an increase in the public debt is given by f = d(g - r) where r is the annual interest rate on the debt; and g is the annual growth rate of nominal GDP (See the debt trap identity)
Portugal Ireland Italy Greece Spain (g - r) 2003-2007 -0.2 2.2 -0.7 3.9 1.7 (g - r) 2009-2011 -3.3 -5.3 -3.6 -6.0 -2.3 Budget adjustment to achieve sustainability (% of GDP) 3.1 7.5 2.9 9.9 4.0
Source: Cinzia Alcidi and Daniel GrosIs: Is Greece different? Adjustment difficulties in southern Europe, Vox, 22 April 2010[1]
GDP growth
(per cent change on previous quarter)
2009 2010 2011 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Portugal -0,2 1.1 0.2 0.3 -0.6 -0.7 Italy -0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.1 Ireland -2.5 2.2 -1.2 0.6 -1.6 Greece -1.1 -0.6 -1.7 -1.6 -2.8 0.8 Spain -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.3 Eurozone 0.2 0.4 1.0 0.4 0.3 0.8
(Source: Eurostat[2])